Bitcoin Poised for Surge: Analysts Predict 'Significant Capital Inflow' in 2024 Amidst Federal Reserve Pivot Speculation


In a swift analysis, market experts foresee a potential influx of "significant capital" into Bitcoin and other risk assets in 2024. Their anticipation is rooted in market indicators pointing towards a more dovish monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve.

According to data from CME's FedWatch tool, futures trading indicates investors are preparing for a shift to a more dovish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. With an almost 100% probability of the Fed maintaining its current target rate range at the upcoming December 13 meeting, futures traders are pricing in at least four rate cuts by the end of the Fed's December 2024 policy meeting.

The impact of a dovish Fed on risk assets, including Bitcoin, could be substantial. YouHodler Chief of Markets, Ruslan Lienkha, suggested that if the U.S. central bank pivots to avoid a recession, the latter part of 2024 might witness significant capital inflows into the risk assets market, potentially driving Bitcoin's surge.

However, Lienkha cautioned that the first interest rate reduction might not occur before mid-2024, keeping risk assets under pressure until then.

Historically, loose monetary policy has correlated with a rise in Bitcoin prices. CoinShares Head of Research, James Butterfill, highlighted the period between 2019 and 2021, where relaxed monetary policy coincided with a Bitcoin price surge.

Bitfinex analysts added that a Fed pivot could positively impact cryptocurrencies, signaling decreased risk aversion among investors and leading to increased capital inflows into riskier assets.

Additionally, a Federal Reserve rate reversal aligning with the fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024 could further boost Bitcoin prices. Bitfinex analysts noted that previous halvings have resulted in substantial price increases, as reduced supply tends to drive up demand and attract more investors.

As the liquid supply of Bitcoin reaches historic lows, with long-term holders accumulating and moving assets to cold storage, the upcoming halving could exert further influence on Bitcoin's valuation.

Analysts at Glassnode pointed out that short-term holder supply is currently at multi-year lows, while long-term holders are steadily accumulating. This trend, combined with other bullish indicators, suggests a potential surge in Bitcoin prices by the end of 2024.

Investors are advised to monitor key indicators such as supply metrics, long-term vs. short-term holder supply, and spent output age bands to anticipate market responses accurately.

Bitcoin's current market capitalization stands at $36,516, marking a 0.5% increase in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

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