Summary Bitmine Immersion Technologies is upgraded from Hold to Buy after a 41% price drop, presenting a more attractive entry point. BMNR's unique model accumulates Ethereum as a treasury asset, avoids debt risk, and recently initiated dividend payments, differentiating it from peers like MSTR. BMNR's performance is highly correlated to ETH price; technical and fundamental analysis suggest medium- to long-term upside driven by deflation, Fed policy, and L2 activity. Despite risks of further volatility, BMNR offers speculative growth potential if Ethereum recovers, but is best suited for investors comfortable with high-risk assets. Investment Thesis Ever since my last thesis , Bitmine Immersion Technologies ( BMNR ) shares have dropped 41%. My “Hold” recommendation was based on wanting to open a buy position at more favorable prices. In spite of all the hype around this asset, in my opinion, it was still overbought. One month ago, I thought that BMNR's price of around $50 was too high and not suitable for long positions. At the moment of this analysis, the price of the asset is around $29, which, in my opinion, is more than enough of a correction to open the previously desired purchases. At the same time, I initially expected a potential corrective decline in BMNR to the price range of $31–39 per share. But due to the more aggressive continuation of the downward trend for Ethereum (ETH-USD) on the daily chart, correction turned out to be deeper. At this point, I see a number of fundamental factors that suggest a potential recovery in the value of the cryptocurrency. As such, now my previous recommendation of “Hold” has been revised to “Buy.” What is Bitmine and what makes it unique? I wouldn't call Bitmine a unique project because it is essentially a copy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). The major difference between them is that each of these organizations has chosen its own underlying asset, on which it acts as a treasury holder. In MSTR's case, it's Bitcoin (BTC-USD), and in BMNR's case, it's Ethereum. Although Bitmine's fundamental business idea copies MicroStrategy's basic principles, it does have a competitive advantage that sets it apart from other assets. It is not just a bet on Ethereum, which is a major altcoin in the cryptocurrency market, but using the proceeds to purchase digital tokens of its own shares rather than corporate bonds, like MSTR does. By doing so, BMNR (at least for now) eliminates the risk of debt and possible insolvency in the future, which could arise for MicroStrategy if it is unable to pay its debts to creditors (because if the value of Bitcoin falls sharply, this could lead to significant financial problems). Bitmine's Ethereum purchase process began on July 8, 2025, when it made its first purchase of 1.15 million digital tokens. At the time, the ETH-USD price was around $2,500 per coin. Chart of ETH purchases for Bitmine reserves The main goal of Bitmine in accumulating Ethereum is to achieve a 5% share of ownership of this digital token out of the total issuance. The total ETH issuance as of November 22, 2025, is 120.69 mln tokens. Thus, 5% of this amount will be 6.0345 mln digital tokens. As per Bitmine's latest press release , they hold about 3.63 mln Ethereum tokens. That is, the goal has been achieved at 3% of the total cryptocurrency circulation in the network. Since I last published, their stake has increased from 2.8%, which is a pretty good result for one month. If we assume that the company will increase its share by 0.2% every 30 calendar days, then overall, the company will achieve an additional 2.4% share over the course of the year. So, considering the current level of 3%, Bitmine has about 10 months left to reach its stated goal of 5%. But I think these estimates for when the goal will be reached are a bit too optimistic. After all, most of the Ethereum buying happened in the last month or so. I doubt it'll keep up like that. However, the value of the cryptocurrency is falling, and therefore its purchase will cost less. But these operations require an additional issue of shares. And as the value of ETH falls, the BMNR exchange rate falls even more sharply. For instance, over the last month, Ethereum has lost 24.29% of its value, whereas BMNR has lost 45.67%. So, a 1% drop in the market cap of the cryptocurrency means a 1.88% loss in the value of Bitmine. In the end, the extra BMNR shares bring in less money, which is distributed for buying ETH. Bitmine's first financial report and dividend payment What makes BMNR more unique compared to MSTR and other cryptocurrency treasury holders? It's that they were the first to announce dividend payments on their shares. Those payments will only be $0.01 per share, less than 0.4% in annual yield. Still, it is the first indication that treasury holders can pay dividends to their shareholders. To me, this decision is more of a marketing move aimed at highlighting Bitmine's uniqueness. But this is just my opinion, and it is not negative, but positive. I don't mind such decisions on the part of the company's management, as this will only add support to the potential growth of BMNR's market value. The company also shared its financial results. The net profit for the 2025 fiscal year was $328.1 mln, which equates to $13.39 per share. Also, Bitmine said that Ethereum staking will start in early 2026. According to my personal opinion, this will give the company a return on digital token staking of about 2-3% per annum. The more detailed financial results are shown below and are taken from the 10-K. Financial results of Bitmine Assessing Bitmine shares through the lens of Ethereum's growth prospects I think the main assessment of BMNR's prospects should be done by looking at Ethereum's price. As Bitmine is the world's largest treasury holder of ETH, the market trends in the cryptocurrency market affect its investment appeal. In order to evaluate BMNR shares, I propose looking at the Ethereum chart. Let's first determine the global trend for ETH using technical analysis of the 1W time frame. Technical analysis of the Ethereum chart on the weekly timeframe On the weekly chart, we can see that a global upward trend channel has formed. The lower boundary was temporarily broken during the collapse of Ethereum prices from March 2025 to May 2025, after which the rapid growth phase began. The bullish momentum was formed at the moment of testing the support level of $1,521. As a consequence, price growth allowed the asset to move towards the upper boundary of the upward trend channel, thus testing the strength of the historical maximum level of $4,868. On the 1D timeframe chart, the Ethereum price shows an acceleration of the downtrend, though it matches the bearish momentum on the weekly chart. The confirmation of the acceleration of the downtrend is that the asset has broken out of the initial downtrend channel by breaking through the lower boundary in the price area of $3,200. At this point, we have formed a new downtrend channel with an initial high of $4,755. If we believe these factors, the price of Ethereum may fall further. The price range ($2,111 - $2,463) is the target. This is formed by a cluster of liquidity in the form of equal lows ((EQL)) in the period May-June 2025. Technical analysis of the Ethereum chart on the daily timeframe Considering this situation based on technical analysis of the Ethereum chart, I suppose that there is still a possibility that the value of the digital token will reach the target range of $2,111–$2,463. Taking the current value of Ethereum at around $2,950, this potential decline could still be between 16.5% and 28.4%. Considering that a 1% decline in ETH over the past month represents a 1.88% loss in BMNR's market value, that could lead to a 31% to 53.4% loss in Bitmine's price. Regardless, I believe that BMNR can be purchased today, since there are a number of factors contributing to the potential recovery of Ethereum's price as early as December 2025. 3 reasons for Ethereum's growth I want to briefly go over the fundamental factors that could cause the value of cryptocurrency to rise over the next month. Firstly, there is the impact of the deflationary mechanism on Ethereum. The point is that today we are seeing increased activity in DeFi, NFT, and L2 settlement networks. On this basis, the commission burning mechanism makes ETH more deflationary, creating a supply shock against a backdrop of increasing institutional demand, thanks in part to Bitmine and its stakeholders, Tom Lee and Cathie Wood (who recently bought 181,774 BMNR shares as head of Ark Invest). Second, I expect that the so-called “Santa Claus rally” may affect the cryptocurrency market for the first time. This is because it has become more correlated with US stock market indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq). The traditional trends might add some pre-New Year optimism and, most importantly, the expectation that the Fed will keep easing its monetary policy. As Ethereum is a high-beta asset, it might show ahead-of-the-curve growth, allowing prices to recover. Additionally, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on December 10, 2025, is 67.3%, while a week earlier the probability was only 39.8%. Fed Rate Monitor Tool Thirdly, the Layer 2 ecosystem is currently reaching its peak in terms of transaction activity. Ethereum is the settlement layer and the foundation for the functioning of this entire ecosystem. The rise in Total Value Locked in L2 networks can be seen as a fundamentally positive factor, which strengthens trust in smart contracts and the value of ETH itself in the eyes of users and investors. Therefore, the potential growth of cryptocurrency in December 2025 may be caused by deflation observed during high network load. Activity Layer 2 Risks of the investment thesis If the above-mentioned fundamental factors do not cause Ethereum to grow in the short term until the end of 2025, I anticipate a potential continuation of the downward trend. This could cause prices to correct further downwards to a price range of $15.5–20 per share. This would be due to the completion of the downward trend for Ethereum on the daily chart and a price rebound from the $2,111–$2,463 range. Conclusion In summary, the results of my fundamental analysis of Bitmine shares allow me to assess them as an active with potential for price growth in the medium and long term. In spite of the existing risks due to the negative impact of Ethereum's price environment, I think there are at least three fundamental reasons why we can expect the value of this token to increase. It will be primarily caused by deflation observed during high network load. Besides, I'm expecting a positive impact from the Fed's decisions, where interest rates might be cut as early as the December meeting. Moreover, according to my calculations, a 1% recovery in ETH could mean a 1.88% increase in BMNR. In summary, my recommendation has been revised from “Hold” to “Buy.” P.S. Do not forget that investments in assets such as BMNR carry an increased risk of market volatility. That's why buying Bitmine shares is a speculative venture. If such a strategy is not for you, ignoring such assets in favor of safer financial instruments would be the best solution
