Summary Trump Media continues to struggle, with Q3 revenues declining and operating losses widening over the prior year period. DJT's reported operating cash flow is largely driven by increases in accounts payable and accrued liabilities. The company shifted focus to crypto holdings and ETF launches, but its crypto portfolio has already suffered significant paper losses in Q4. One of the worst-performing names in the market over the past year has been Trump Media ( DJT ). With the social and conservative media platform failing to generate meaningful revenues, the high-valuation stock has lost more than half of its value. Recently, the company's Q3 results showed that story to be continuing, but the recent pivot by management means this name will have a new focus moving forward. Previous Coverage of the Name I last took a look at Trump Media back in August, right after the company announced its Q2 results . Total revenues continued to be quite small, with operating expenses very high even after excluding legal expenses. As that business was failing to gain much traction, management had decided to pursue other opportunities. Since that article, shares have fallen more than 36%, while the S&P 500 is up more than 7%, and US markets have hit a number of new highs recently. A Look at the Q3 Results For the September ending period, revenues came in at a little under $973,000. That number was actually down from the year-ago period, which saw just a little over $1.01 million. The problem is that operating expenses soared as compared to Q3 2024, resulting in an operating loss of more than $57 million. Even when taking out a $16.2 million charge related to its digital assets, the number was still up significantly from the $23.7 million loss a year earlier. Net interest and investment income helped reduce the overall loss a little, but the annualized run rate bottom line number was still about negative $219 million. Trump Media boasted in its earnings press release that it had a second consecutive quarter of operating cash flow, over $10 million in Q3. However, this was mostly due to the surge in the company's accounts payable and accrued liabilities providing a nearly $17 million working capital benefit. For the first nine months of this year, the company has reported $2.6 million in operating cash flow, but the two liability accounts mentioned above have provided a more than $23.6 million tailwind. Trump Media had about $3.1 billion in cash and investments at the end of Q2. Of that, over $1.3 billion was cash and equivalents, along with $1 billion of restricted cash, nearly $620 million of short-term investments, and $122 million of trading securities. The company bought almost $1.5 billion of digital assets in Q3, so cash was down to just $166 million, with another $336 million in restricted cash. Short-term investments and trading securities each had over $550 million, while there was nearly a billion dollars of total debt on the balance sheet. The company is not in any financial trouble currently. Crypto Holdings and Upcoming ETF So far, things have not gone well for the Trump Media crypto portfolio. Over 11,500 Bitcoins were purchased in Q3, with an average cost of more than $118,500, according to the 10-Q filing . The company also held over 756 million Cronos ("CRO") at the end of the quarter, with its average cost being over 15 cents each. As of early Monday afternoon, those two cryptos were trading at roughly $92,685 and 10.61 cents, respectively. That would mean a paper loss of about $316 million so far during Q4, assuming no position changes. Trump Media is seemingly chasing whatever is hot in the market. First, it was social media and expanding the conservative platforms during Donald Trump's 2024 run for the White House. Then, the company intended to launch a series of ETFs based on "America First" and related principles. Earlier this year, the pivot was made to become a crypto holding company. Now, as detailed in the Q3 release, the company is going to jump into the prediction markets, trying to take on names like Kalshi, DraftKings ( DKNG ), and others. The crypto bet isn't just buying coins and tokens, however. The company has also filed to launch three ETFs in this space. Only one of them will be Bitcoin only, which faces substantial competition already from the likes of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) that was almost at $100 billion in assets. The second will be a combination of 75% Bitcoin and 25% Ether. Perhaps the most interesting fund will be the latest one that was announced , one that will hold 70% Bitcoin and 15% Ether, along with 8% Solana, 5% Cronos, and 2% XRP. These ETFs are scheduled to launch before the end of this year. Trying to Determine a Proper Valuation Trump Media finished Friday's session with a market cap of nearly $3.1 billion. If we value the name on revenues, the stock looks ungodly expensive, doing less than $4 million a year in annual run rate revenues during Q3. Even if some of these other ventures start to pay off and the top line were to 10X by next year, you're still looking at nearly 80 times revenues, not counting any changes in the stock price or outstanding share count. Social media names like Rumble ( RUM ) and Meta Platforms ( META ) currently go for less than 13 and about 6.5 times, respectively, their expected 2026 revenues. BlackRock ( BLK ), which owns the iShares ETF platform that Trump Media will partially be competing with moving forward, trades for a little less than 6 times its expected 2026 revenue. Trump Media would need hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenues just to have a comparable valuation to those names. The last time I covered Trump Media, it was basically just the social media business and a giant pile of cash. Now, the cash position has been swapped somewhat for cryptocurrencies, which during the current quarter have taken a sizable hit. Subtracting out debt and the large losses to date gives you a net cash and investments balance of less than $1.9 billion, meaning that the total market cap represents a more than $1 billion premium. A small social media business is not worth that much, given its large losses, but perhaps if the ETF segment starts to bear fruit, there could be some value here in the future. Final Thoughts and Recommendation The third quarter of 2025 was not a very good one for Trump Media. The company didn't even hit a million dollars in revenue, and operating losses jumped considerably even after taking out the loss on digital assets. The company would have burned through cash if it paid its bills, and so far during Q4, the company's crypto bets are taking a large hit. Now, investors are waiting to see how entries into the ETF and prediction markets will fare. Until Trump Media can start to show some meaningful revenues while not losing a ton of money, I have to keep my sell rating on the stock. This name trades at a massive valuation no matter what industry you put it in, and the market cap premium to its net cash and investments balance could disappear like we've seen with other names such as Strategy ( MSTR ). Trump Media moving forward is going to be a major bet on crypto, but if their ETF business flops, investors need to hope that Bitcoin and Cronos prices rise over time.
