Seeking Alpha
2025-09-23 17:00:00

USBC.: Greg Kidd's Bitcoin Treasury And Stablecoin Pivot

Summary KNW pivoted from med-tech to fintech. It has now rebranded to USBC and is prioritizing a dollar-denominated, identity-verified stablecoin strategy. Greg Kidd’s Goldeneye injected 1,000 Bitcoin and cash, which effectively gave him a controlling interest in the company. USBC’s new Bitcoin treasury will also use options for generating yield, so the new equity shouldn’t track the Bitcoin price 1:1. USBC’s legacy non-invasive glucose program persists on paper. However, the emphasis will likely shift for the most part to fintech and stablecoin initiatives. The valuation is complex and uncertain, and its prospects depend largely on details we don’t know yet. This is why I feel a neutral “Hold” rating makes sense for now. After a challenging 2024 and early 2025, Know Labs ( KNW ) has been restructured as USBC, Inc. ( OTC:USBC ). Goldeneye 1995 LLC, a company directed by Greg Kidd, bought KNW and changed its focus from med-tech toward a token/app fintech. This new iteration now offers a dollar-denominated, identity-verified USBC token that’s available via mobile app. USBC is also combining a Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) treasury with an expanded $14.5 million ATM facility. The medical part of their business description remains on paper, but in practice, it’s no longer a priority. And, for the most part, there are still a lot of questions about the details of their new stablecoin ambitions, which is why I remain neutral on the stock for now. Stablecoin Ambitions Know Labs, Inc. was developing a proprietary sensor technology that allows for measuring of glucose levels with non-invasive methods. KNW began as Visualant, Inc. and was incorporated in 1998. It was later renamed Know Labs in 2018, but it was ultimately experiencing financial stress . Management disclosed a going-concern doubt due to ongoing losses and a debt of $4.7 million of convertible notes outstanding. By August 2025, KNW rebranded again to USBC, Inc., following a strategic transaction that infused the balance sheet with additional capital. They’re currently headquartered in Reno, Nevada, and are actively pursuing a stablecoin business model. Source: @USBCxyz on X. Retrieved September 15, 2025. Moreover, KNW’s ticker changed to “USBC” after Goldeneye 1995 LLC injected capital. Goldeneye is owned and managed by Greg Kidd. This way, Mr. Kidd purchased the company and injected 1,000 Bitcoin plus $15 million in cash into KNW. In the process, Mr. Kidd effectively acquired a controlling interest . Since then, USBC Inc. is technically a “controlled company” under NYSE rules. Mr. Kidd also became Chairman and CEO of USBC, and he holds a majority of the voting power. It’s also worth mentioning that USBC is the new name of the company, but it’s also the name of their stablecoin. The USBC stablecoin offers a USD token to trade inside a mobile app that uses identity checks (KYC) to tie every wallet to a verified person. So, unlike many crypto wallets, this is not anonymous. The app also has reward mechanisms for users holding and using the USBC stablecoin, which, in theory, could help with its adoption. The mobile app is listed as “ USBC Deposit Token ,” and it is positioned as a non-custodial wallet with encrypted IDs and sign-in via phone/QR. Source: USBC’s (formerly Know Labs, Inc.) S-1 SEC Filing. September 2025. Therefore, Mr. Kidd effectively changed the company toward blockchain and identity finance. This updated business model largely hinges on their new USBC deposit token. This vision is closely aligned with his investing background as well. You see, Greg Kidd is known for Hard Yaka and early investments and advisory roles in Coinbase ( COIN ), Ripple, Square ( XYZ ), Solana ( SOL-USD ), Robinhood ( HOOD ), among other companies. Additionally, he has worked in risk and compliance, which is relevant for implementing a tokenized deposit and digital-identity business. Legacy Health Monitoring Research It is worth noting that USBC’s investor site describes two business tracks for the new company. These are 1) digital assets and banking, and 2) non-invasive health monitoring solutions for glucose level monitoring. But, I believe it’s reasonable to assume their flagship focus will be the fintech track. Though technically speaking, their sensing work will continue until a filing says otherwise. And in that sense, I think we do need to wait and see for their next 10-Q report to get a clearer picture about their R&D progress (if any). In any event, the legacy health monitoring solutions used radio waves to detect molecular signatures. The lead application is a non-invasive glucose monitoring system, with planned devices that include the “KnowU.” This was intended to be a wearable continuous monitor, and “UBand” was a similar wrist-worn device. These products didn’t have FDA approval but were in development before the Goldeneye acquisition. Source: Know Labs, Inc. Website. Retrieved September 15, 2025. There are also other mass-market glucose monitoring systems (( CGMs )) from Dexcom ( DXCM ) and Abbott ( ABT ) that show this space is highly contested. Those competitors are also minimally invasive sensors, but still require the insertion of a flexible filament under the skin. So, it’s possible that KNW’s devices could have found a promising product-market fit with some users. And that’s why I think this legacy business line should still have some value, even if it can only be unlocked by selling it or licensing it in the future. Unfortunately, it’s hard to quantify this potential until we get more color from management on this item. Valuation And Risk Analysis Now, from a valuation perspective, it’s important to remember that post-transaction with Goldeneye, there are roughly 384.2 million shares outstanding. So, at the current $0.92 PPS , it implies a $353.5 million market cap. Also, Mr. Kidd is the sole owner of Goldeneye, which effectively gives him about a 93.1% ownership of USBC. The remaining 6.9% is held among three other institutional investors and retail investors in general. Using the table below , I calculate that only around 20.5 million shares (5.3% of the shares outstanding) are available for retail investors, which is a relatively thin float. Source: USBC’s (formerly Know Labs, Inc.) S-1 SEC Filing. September 2025. Additionally, we can use KNW’s Q2 2025 10-Q to approximate its current balance sheet as USBC. Back then, KNW had only $172.5 thousand in cash and equivalents, and total assets of just $492.6 thousand. Total liabilities were $5.3 million, which is why their stockholders' deficit was -$4.8 million. We can add to these figures the acquisitions’ infusions of $15 million in cash and 1,000 Bitcoin. That way, I estimate USBC’s current balance sheet has around $15.5 million in cash, $113.0 million worth of Bitcoin, and an “updated” book value of $123.2 million (assuming the current Bitcoin price of $113.0 thousand ). Therefore, I calculate that USBC now trades at a P/B of approximately 2.9. For comparison, Strategy Inc ( MSTR ), which is another Bitcoin treasury company, has a P/B of 3.8 . So, it could seem like USBC today might be at a compelling valuation. However, unlike MSTR, USBC doesn’t have any revenues yet. Its legacy KNW’s operations had no revenues either, and its nine months ended in June 2025 recorded EBIT losses of $6.2 million. The majority of its legacy OpEx came from G&A expenses, so even if we assume its R&D expenses go to zero, USBC’s 9-month cash burn would be at around $4.8 million. If we annualize that figure, it implies a yearly cash burn of approximately $6.4 million, and that’s assuming USBC no longer focuses on its legacy biotech R&D. Additionally, USBC intends to use its Bitcoin treasury as an asset to generate yield. In practice, since Bitcoin doesn’t have native yield , this means they’ll rely on Hyrcanian Asset Management, LLC for this. For context, USBC signed an agreement with them that basically lets them run option strategies on USBC’s Bitcoin to harvest premiums. This sounds interesting on paper, but the problem is that it complicates USBC’s valuation. After all, if USBC runs covered calls on its Bitcoin treasury and its price appreciates substantially, its upside would be capped. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s price declines, USBC’s downside might be offset by the options’ premium received. Source: Artemis. Thus, we can’t really think of USBC as a directly correlated asset to Bitcoin’s price, even though it’s its main asset today. Besides, the stablecoin market is relatively crowded by now. As you can see in the table above , there are several well-entrenched stablecoins (like USDC and USDT) that already have considerable market shares and all offer basically the same features. So, if USBC wants its stablecoin to succeed, it will likely have to offer very compelling rewards for new users. But unfortunately, we don’t have enough details on those particulars yet either. Also, we don’t know how much USBC will have to spend to develop its fintech app or stablecoin, which means the cash burn will probably be higher than my estimate. But, on the other hand, options premiums on their Bitcoin will likely give USBC some cash flows to help finance their operations as well. Nevertheless, based on the figures we know so far, I would say they have an implied cash runway (excluding Bitcoin) of approximately 2.4 years (assuming my cash burn calculation of around $6.4 million), which seems like a comfortable margin to maneuver in the near term. Source: Seeking Alpha Charts. Lastly, more recently, in September 2025, USBC also expanded its ATM equity program, which lets it sell new shares into the market in small and flexible amounts as needed. This ATM was raised from $5 million to $14.5 million under a Capital on Demand sales agreement with JonesTrading. This contract lets USBC raise cash by selling small amounts of new stock directly into the market, with JonesTrading acting as sales agent. The use of proceeds can be for everyday needs, product build, or equipment. So, this should help the company remain operational until it starts generating revenues with its app and USBC stablecoin. Conclusion: Wait And See So, I think USBC remains largely speculative until we see another quarterly update and earnings call. But they do have multiple funding levers , which is why I feel USBC is mostly a bet on Mr. Kidd’s fintech and stablecoin vision. And I think USBC should have enough resources to attempt to roll out its beta for its USBC token and mobile app. This process will likely require building the tech, locking down licenses and bank partners, and acquiring users. This is why the timing and particulars of their new roadmap add another layer of uncertainty to the equation. The near-term catalysts for USBC would be the launch of the USBC app beta and first user metrics, tokens in circulation, rewards details for users, or transaction volumes. But, all in all, I don’t think there’s enough information to warrant a bullish rating, which is why I lean towards a “Hold” for now until we have more clarity.

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