Summary Bitcoin may be entering the final, most bullish phase of its current halving cycle, historically a period of strong price gains. Based on past cycles, I expect significant upward movement for bitcoin at the end of summer and into early fall. My earlier prediction that bitcoin would outperform the broader market in 2025 has proven accurate so far this year. Bitcoin has gained 22% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's gain of below 9%, supporting my bullish outlook. I'm providing a key update on Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) since we could be heading into the final leg of this halving cycle. If bitcoin acts similarly to the way it did in the final leg of past cycles, we could see significant gains in the price at the end of the summer and the beginning of the fall. The price of bitcoin tends to make significant increases in the final leg of the cycle. I expressed my previous theory that bitcoin could significantly outperform the broader market in 2025 in a December 2024 article . That turned out to be true so far this year, as bitcoin increased 24% year-to-date as compared to the S&P 500's ( SPY ) gain of under 9% . Institutional Demand One of the key drivers in the current cycle for bitcoin is institutional demand. This includes large companies such as Strategy ( MSTR ) buying large quantities of bitcoin. As of August 3, 2025, Strategy held 628,791 bitcoins . Strategy tends to have an ongoing bitcoin purchasing plan. There are other companies that also hold bitcoin, such as MARA Holdings ( MARA ) with 50,000 bitcoins, Twenty One Capital with 43,514 bitcoins, and many others. This demand also includes large institutional investors (hedge funds, wealth managers, etc.), such as those buying bitcoin through ETFs. Spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $100 billion in assets . SEC filings show that numerous institutional investors purchased bitcoin ETFs. The reason why this is an important driver for the price of bitcoin is because the price of anything is determined by supply and demand. Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins that will ever be mined. With a fixed supply, growing demand would drive the price higher over time. Large institutional investors have the big money that can move markets. Therefore, growing demand from these entities is likely to help drive the price of bitcoin higher. Of course, retail investors can add to the institutional demand, helping to drive the price higher. Favorable Government Actions On August 7, 2025, U.S. President, Donald Trump signed an executive order to allow cryptocurrencies, private equity, and other alternative assets into 401k plans. If this is implemented on a widespread basis, it could lead to even more demand for bitcoin. Self-directed retirement plans already provide options for investing in bitcoin through ETFs. More widespread offerings throughout a variety of retirement plans would most likely increase demand for bitcoin, putting upward pressure on the price. Various countries creating strategic bitcoin reserves can also help the cryptocurrency. The United States (200,000 BTC) and China (190,000 BTC) are two large countries that established strategic bitcoin reserves. Smaller countries such as the United Kingdom (61,000 BTC), Bhutan (13,000), and El Salvador (6,262 BTC) also have reserves. These strategic reserves involve countries holding bitcoin as part of their investment strategies. Strategic reserves can help create acceptance for bitcoin among more investors due to more awareness of the cryptocurrency. The reserves can also help keep more supply out of circulation, putting upward pressure on prices. If these countries implemented regular purchases of bitcoin, it could also put upward pressure on the price. Bullish Technical Outlook Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) Daily Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) Beginning with the daily chart above, a hidden bullish divergence exists as the price of bitcoin made a higher low, while the purple RSI line (middle of the chart) made a lower low. This type of set-up typically results in the price moving higher from what I have observed. The MACD at the bottom of the chart looks like it is recovering from the recent sell-off from July into August. This is indicated by the histogram, which shows the red bars turning pink and shortening in length. This shows that the recent negative momentum is lessening. The blue MACD line looks like it is about to cross above the red signal line. If the crossover occurs and the histogram bars turn green, a new positive trend will be confirmed on the daily chart. Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) Monthly Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) I provided bitcoin's monthly chart above to provide a longer-term perspective. We can see that the previous two cycles in 2017 and 2021 didn't peak until the RSI (middle of the chart) went deep above 90 into overbought territory. Actually, the last cycle in 2021 had a double top where the 2nd top went slightly higher than the first top. The RSI didn't move above the 70s yet in the current halving cycle. Of course, there is no guarantee that the price moves the RSI into the 90s in this cycle. However, this has been the case in each cycle so far. I want to point out that previous cycles have been consistent in length of days. For example, the past two halving cycles lasted exactly 1,064 days from the price bottom to the price peak. The first cycle lasted a bit longer at 1,148 days. So, if we use 1,064 days, the current cycle would take us to October 2025. It is also possible that this cycle goes longer or shorter than previous cycles. An educated guess based on previous cycles says that this cycle should last at least until October. The Risks For Investing In Bitcoin One risk for my investment thesis is that the buying volume has been declining from April through July on the monthly chart while the price has been increasing. It is not clear if volume will pick up in August and September. So, the possibility exists that the price already peaked at about $123,000 for this cycle. The price of bitcoin is highly volatile. After the price peaks in each cycle, bitcoin can decline by 70% or more. The good news is that the price made all-time highs in each new cycle after these large sell-offs. Many investors point this out and are advocates of buying and holding bitcoin. However, it can be painful for investors to take such a large hit like that. It can cause them to sell at the wrong time and discourage further investing in bitcoin. I think investors can do better by closely watching the technicals and having an exit strategy close to the peak of each cycle. This would involve selling when the price moves deep into overbought territory on the RSI on the monthly chart. The best purchasing times were when the price dipped below the 50 level on the RSI on the monthly chart. You may not be able to time it perfectly, but buying near the low points and selling near the highs can be feasible. Final Thoughts On Bitcoin My theory is that the rally in bitcoin's price will continue in August and September. I think the rally will last at least 1,064 days in-line with the past two cycles taking us to October 2025. The length of this cycle could be different this time, but the cycles have been fairly consistent. I'm sticking with my forecast for a peak price of at least $150,000 for this cycle, which would be 10x the low price of $15,000 from 2022. The peak price is based on the 2.618 Fibonacci level, which looks reasonable for this cycle.
