Summary XRP-USD holds above $2.1 after rebounding from December lows near $1.95. Major EMAs remain overhead, capping upside attempts. Spot outflows and rising leverage keep the market range-bound. By Jainam Mehta XRP ( XRP-USD ) is trading just above the $2.1 area on Friday as January opens, attempting to stabilize after a volatile second half of 2025 that left the market technically bruised but not broken. Price action over the past week reflects a reflex bounce from December lows near $1.95, but the broader structure continues to signal repair rather than reversal. Traders are balancing oversold technical conditions against persistent spot outflows and rising derivatives positioning, keeping XRP-USD locked in a cautious range. The early-January bounce has relieved immediate downside pressure, but conviction remains limited. XRP-USD has failed repeatedly to reclaim key resistance zones, and the lack of sustained spot demand continues to undermine follow-through. The market is stabilizing but not yet rebuilding the foundation required for a durable trend shift. Technical structure remains corrective On the daily chart, XRP-USD remains below all major moving averages, which continue to define the market’s ceiling. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs have rolled over near $2.05 and $2.07, acting as immediate pressure points. Above that, the 100-day EMA around $2.22 and the 200-day EMA near $2.34 form a dense resistance band that has capped every rebound attempt since October. XRP-USD price dynamics (Source: TradingView) Momentum shows improvement, but not confirmation. The daily RSI has climbed back into the mid-50s after spending much of December near oversold territory. That signals relief rather than strength. Historically, XRP-USD has required sustained RSI readings above 60 to support trend continuation. Volume reinforces the same message. The bounce off December lows occurred without meaningful expansion in spot volume, pointing to short covering and tactical dip buying rather than accumulation. Intraday structure highlights the same indecision. On the 30-minute chart, XRP-USD has transitioned into a choppy consolidation between roughly $2.08 and $2.16. Supertrend has flipped marginally supportive near $2.09, while parabolic SAR dots trail price from below. Still, attempts to break above $2.18 have stalled quickly, reflecting active supply just above the range. Flows and leverage shape near-term risk Spot flow data continues to act as a headwind. Exchange netflows have remained predominantly negative since October, with capital leaving during rallies rather than entering on dips. Even the most recent $12 million inflow barely offsets months of sustained outflows. XRP-USD has historically struggled to trend higher without consistent spot accumulation, and that pattern remains intact. Derivatives positioning adds fragility. Open interest has climbed back toward $4.1 billion, even as price remains range-bound. Long-to-short ratios show retail accounts leaning long, particularly on Binance , while recent liquidation data suggests shorts have absorbed the bulk of the pressure. This creates a narrow equilibrium. A push higher risks short squeezes, while a breakdown could trigger long liquidations given the elevated leverage. Levels that define the next move The bullish scenario requires confirmation. XRP-USD must reclaim and hold above the $2.2-2.25 zone on a daily closing basis. Acceptance above the 100-day EMA would weaken seller control and open a path toward $2.4, where the 200-day EMA converges with prior breakdown levels. Clearing that zone would materially improve the medium-term structure and expose $2.7 as a higher target. The bearish path is clearer. Failure to hold $2.05 shifts focus back to the $1.95 to $2 support zone that anchored December’s lows. A break there risks a deeper move toward $1.80, especially given the elevated open interest that could accelerate downside through forced liquidations. Broader market conditions continue to matter. Bitcoin remains range-bound, and liquidity across altcoins remains selective. Without a risk-on impulse from major assets, XRP-USD is likely to continue trading defensively rather than leading. For short-term traders, range tactics dominate. Buying near support with tight risk or fading rallies into resistance aligns with current structure. For longer-term participants, patience remains essential. XRP-USD needs to reclaim key moving averages and show sustained spot inflows before a directional bet becomes compelling. As previously discussed, XRP-USD’s second-half 2025 decline followed the exhaustion of a multi-month rally and a shift toward capital rotation into larger, more liquid assets. That backdrop has not materially changed. The current stabilization fits the pattern of repair rather than renewal, reinforcing the view that XRP-USD remains in consolidation until accumulation returns. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
