Bitcoin is holding above the $90,000 level after briefly testing resistance near $94,000, a move that has provided short-term relief but stopped short of confirming a renewed uptrend. While price action suggests buyers are defending key psychological support, momentum remains fragile, and analysts are increasingly focused on on-chain signals to assess whether this consolidation can evolve into a sustainable recovery. According to top analyst Darkfost, one of the most informative indicators in the current environment is the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR). To avoid misleading short-term fluctuations, Darkfost emphasizes the importance of monitoring the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR rather than the raw daily readings. This smoother view helps isolate structural shifts in behavior. At present, the indicator is recovering from a cycle low near 0.982 and is gradually approaching the neutral threshold of 1.0. That level marks the point at which short-term holders move from realizing losses to breaking even. This recovery suggests selling pressure from recent buyers may be easing. However, whether SOPR can reclaim and hold above neutral will likely determine if Bitcoin’s current consolidation resolves higher or gives way to renewed downside pressure. Short-Term Holders Still Under Pressure, Trend Confirmation Pending This metric tracks whether short-term holders—market participants who typically control a large share of daily trading volume—are realizing profits or losses when they move coins. Because these holders tend to react quickly to price changes and often provide exit liquidity, their behavior plays a decisive role in short-term market direction. According to Darkfost, short-term Bitcoin holders are still operating at a loss, despite the recent price stabilization above $90,000. This detail is critical for interpreting the current market phase. When STHs are underwater, selling pressure tends to persist in waves, but it also marks the zone where attractive risk-reward conditions often begin to form—provided broader structure holds. Historically, durable bullish trends do not emerge while short-term holders are consistently realizing losses. For momentum to shift decisively, this cohort must return to profitability. Once STHs move back into profit, behavior changes materially: panic selling fades, holding periods extend, and the market becomes less reactive to minor pullbacks. When this transition follows a capitulation phase, it has often preceded stronger upside continuation. However, Darkfost highlights a clear risk scenario. If STH SOPR approaches the neutral level around 1.0 and is rejected, it may signal that short-term participants are using break-even levels to exit positions. This behavior reflects lingering uncertainty rather than renewed confidence. Prolonged rejection below neutral has historically aligned with bear market conditions, where rallies fail to gain traction and sellers dominate rebounds. In this context, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain STH profitability becomes a key confirmation signal. Until that occurs, the market remains in a fragile balance—poised between recovery and renewed downside. Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Structure Remains Cautious Bitcoin is currently trading near the $92,000 area after rejecting higher levels, and the chart highlights a market attempting to stabilize following a sharp corrective phase. Price remains well below the prior cycle highs above $120,000, confirming that the broader trend has shifted from expansion into consolidation and distribution. From a technical perspective, BTC is trading below the short- and medium-term moving averages, which are now sloping downward. This configuration reflects persistent overhead supply and reinforces that rallies are still being sold into. The recent bounce from the $85,000–$88,000 zone shows that buyers are defending this area, but the lack of strong follow-through suggests demand remains fragile. The 200-day moving average continues to act as structural support below the price, currently near the mid-$80,000 range. As long as BTC holds above this level, the broader market structure avoids a deeper breakdown. However, price is also capped below former support around $95,000–$97,000, which has now flipped into resistance. Volume dynamics further support a cautious outlook. While sell pressure has moderated compared to the October breakdown, buying volume remains muted, indicating limited conviction from bulls. For momentum to improve meaningfully, Bitcoin would need a sustained reclaim of the $96,000–$100,000 zone. Until then, price action suggests a range-bound environment with elevated downside risk if support fails.
