Summary Dogecoin trades near $0.124 after losing all major moving average support. The $0.155 to $0.16 zone has flipped into firm overhead resistance. Persistent spot outflows and long liquidations reinforce downside risk. By Parshwa Turakhiya Dogecoin ( DOGE-USD ) continues to trade under heavy structural pressure on Thursday as the market extends a prolonged downtrend that has dominated price action since October. DOGE is hovering near the $0.124 area after failing to defend multiple support zones through November and early December. What initially appeared to be a cooling phase after a speculative rally has evolved into a clear distribution-driven decline, with little evidence yet that the market has found a durable base. The current weakness reflects a convergence of technical damage, fading momentum, and cautious positioning. While selling pressure has become more orderly in recent sessions, the absence of sustained demand has left Dogecoin vulnerable to further downside as key support levels are tested. Daily chart shows decisive trend deterioration On the daily chart, Dogecoin’s bearish structure is well established. Early warning signs appeared when price broke below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signaling a loss of short-term momentum. The more consequential shift followed when DOGE lost the 100-day EMA and failed to reclaim it on multiple rebound attempts. That failure confirmed a broader transition from consolidation into sustained decline. DOGE price dynamics (Source: TradingView) The longer-term picture has also weakened materially. The 200-day EMA is positioned near $0.19 and is now sloping lower, underscoring that the broader trend has turned against the bulls. Price remains compressed beneath all major moving averages, with rebounds capped at progressively lower levels. The $0.155 to $0.16 region stands out as firm overhead resistance. This zone, aligned with the falling 50-day EMA, has consistently rejected recovery attempts. Each rally into that area has been met with renewed selling, reinforcing the view that upside liquidity is being used for distribution rather than trend repair. As long as DOGE remains below this band, upside moves continue to function as corrective bounces rather than meaningful reversals. Momentum and intraday structure reinforce bearish bias Momentum indicators confirm the broader weakness. Daily RSI is holding in the low-30s, reflecting sustained downside pressure without reaching capitulation conditions. This profile is typical of trending declines, where momentum remains compressed and rebounds fail to generate bullish divergence. RSI has repeatedly rolled over near its signal line, highlighting the absence of persistent buying interest. Intraday signals echo this setup. On the 30-minute chart, both Supertrend and Parabolic SAR remain firmly positioned above price, keeping short-term bias pointed lower. A sharp rejection from the $0.135 area earlier in the session highlighted how quickly sellers step back in once price stretches into resistance. Subsequent price action has been tight and directionally weak, suggesting that sellers are maintaining control without the need for aggressive volume. Until price can establish higher lows above short-term trend indicators, intraday strength remains fragile and vulnerable to renewed selling. Positioning resets as distribution persists Derivatives data provides additional context. Futures open interest has declined alongside price, indicating leverage is being reduced rather than rebuilt. This points to de-risking behavior rather than aggressive short positioning, which helps explain the orderly nature of the decline. Despite this, long-to-short ratios on major exchanges remain skewed toward longs, suggesting that traders continue to lean against the prevailing trend. That imbalance has left DOGE vulnerable to repeated long liquidations during even modest selloffs. Liquidation data confirms this dynamic. Long liquidations have dominated across the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 24-hour windows, while short-side stress has remained limited. This indicates that downside moves are being reinforced by forced exits rather than panic-driven selling. The lack of a sharp liquidation spike also suggests the market has not yet reached a clear exhaustion point. Spot flow data remains unsupportive. Dogecoin has recorded persistent net outflows, signaling continued movement of tokens onto exchanges. While brief inflow spikes have appeared during short-lived rallies, they have coincided closely with local highs and failed to sustain follow-through. This behavior aligns with broader distribution dynamics rather than accumulation. Market outlook From a technical perspective, the $0.12 level now represents critical near-term support. A decisive daily close below this zone would expose the psychological $0.1 area, where Dogecoin last found meaningful demand earlier in the year. On the upside, price would need to reclaim $0.14 and then hold above $0.155 to begin neutralizing downside risk. While oversold bounces may occur, the charts suggest they are likely to be tactical rather than transformational. For now, Dogecoin remains in a defensive phase, with the market still searching for a durable base rather than preparing for a trend reversal. Previously, we noted that Dogecoin’s failure to reclaim its key moving averages left the market vulnerable to a prolonged unwind. The latest price action confirms that assessment. Trend, momentum, positioning, and spot flows remain aligned to the downside. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
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