Summary XRP trades near $1.83 after losing its mid-year breakout structure. The $2 to $2.05 zone has flipped from support into firm resistance. Persistent spot outflows and long liquidations reinforce downside risk. By Jainam Mehta XRP ( XRP-USD ) is trading in a clearly weakened technical posture on Thursday as the market continues to unwind from its mid-year breakout. Price is holding near the $1.83 area after a prolonged sequence of lower highs and lower lows that began once XRP failed to sustain momentum above the $3 region. What initially appeared to be a routine correction has evolved into a broader distribution phase, marked by repeated failures to reclaim critical trend levels.The latest decline reflects structural damage rather than short-term volatility. While downside momentum has slowed at times, the absence of sustained demand has left XRP vulnerable to further pressure as sellers continue to dominate recovery attempts. Daily chart confirms transition from expansion to distribution On the daily chart, XRP’s trend deterioration is clear. The early warning signs appeared when price broke below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signaling a loss of short-term momentum. The more decisive shift came when XRP lost the 100-day EMA and failed to reclaim it on multiple rebound attempts. That failure marked the transition from trend expansion into distribution. XRP price dynamics (Source: TradingView) The longer-term picture has also weakened. The 200-day EMA is hovering near $2.43 and has begun to flatten, reflecting a loss of upward slope that previously defined the broader bull structure. Price remains well below all major EMAs, with rebounds capped at progressively lower levels. The $2 to $2.05 region now stands out as a pivotal inflection zone. What previously acted as a consolidation floor has flipped into overhead supply. Each rally into this area has stalled quickly, confirming that sellers remain active on strength. As long as XRP trades below this band, upside moves are best interpreted as corrective rather than trend-changing. Below current levels, the market is leaning against thin support near $1.8. This shelf has slowed selling pressure in recent sessions, but it lacks the depth typically associated with durable bases. A clean daily close below $1.8 would likely expose the mid-$1.6s, where XRP last saw sustained accumulation before the summer rally accelerated. Momentum and intraday structure remain aligned to the downside Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish structure. Daily RSI is holding in the low-30s, reflecting persistent downside pressure without reaching capitulation conditions. This behavior is typical of trending declines, where momentum stabilizes at weak levels rather than rebounding sharply. Importantly, RSI has failed to reclaim its signal line during recent rebounds, underscoring the absence of sustained bullish momentum. There is no meaningful bullish divergence developing, suggesting the market is grinding lower rather than preparing for a reversal. Shorter timeframes echo this weakness. On the 30-minute chart, both Supertrend and Parabolic SAR remain firmly positioned above price, keeping intraday bias pointed lower. A brief spike toward $2 earlier in the session was aggressively sold, triggering a swift reversal. That rejection confirmed that upside liquidity is being used for distribution rather than structural repair.Until XRP can hold above the Supertrend band near $1.87 to $1.9, short-term strength remains tactical at best and vulnerable to rapid fades. Positioning resets but demand remains absent Derivatives data adds important context. Futures open interest has declined by more than 5%, indicating leverage is being flushed from the system rather than rebuilt. This marks a shift from earlier phases of the downtrend, when falling prices coincided with rising open interest and aggressive positioning. The current configuration suggests de-risking rather than fresh speculative engagement. While this can help reduce volatility, it does not by itself signal a bullish turn. Liquidation data shows where pressure has been concentrated. Long liquidations have dominated across the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 24-hour windows, with minimal stress on short positions. This confirms that positioning remained skewed toward upside expectations even as structure weakened. Spot flow trends remain unsupportive. XRP continues to record persistent net outflows, indicating tokens are moving onto exchanges rather than into long-term custody. Brief inflow spikes have appeared during sharp rallies, but these have coincided closely with local highs and have not been sustained. This pattern aligns with distribution rather than accumulation. Market outlook From a technical standpoint, XRP would need to reclaim $2.05 on a daily closing basis to begin neutralizing downside risk. A follow-through move toward the 100-day EMA near $2.35 would be required to restore medium-term balance. Until those levels are recovered, the prevailing structure favors continuation rather than recovery. While oversold bounces may occur, the charts suggest they are likely to be tactical rather than transformational. For now, XRP appears to be searching for a durable base, with the burden of proof firmly resting on buyers rather than sellers. Previously, we noted that XRP’s failure to hold above its key moving averages left the market vulnerable to a prolonged unwind. The current price action confirms that assessment. Trend, momentum, positioning, and spot flows remain aligned to the downside . 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