VanEck Predicts Bitcoin to Reach New Highs Despite Impending Recession in 2024


Bitcoin Bulls Despite Recession Threat

VanEck, in its yearly crypto forecast, projects a resilient Bitcoin performance in 2024, even in the face of an anticipated U.S. recession. The investment manager foresees over $2.4 billion flowing into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1, contingent on regulatory approvals. If given the green light, these ETFs are expected to trade at 0.1% spreads, coupled with zero commission at numerous brokerages, driving significant demand.

Halving and All-Time Highs

Despite a projected U.S. economic downturn in the first half of 2024, VanEck analysts, Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, are optimistic about Bitcoin's trajectory. They point to the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April as a potential catalyst. The analysts predict a smooth halving event, with Bitcoin surging above $48,000 post-halving. They envision Bitcoin climbing a "Presidential-sized wall of worry" throughout the U.S. election year, culminating in an all-time high by November, possibly reaching up to $160,000.

Ether's Role and Solana's Surge

VanEck dismisses the notion of Ethereum overtaking Bitcoin's market cap in 2024, citing Bitcoin's clearer regulatory status. However, the analysts expect Ethereum to outperform mega-cap tech stocks, especially post-halving. Solana is identified as a standout performer, poised to secure a spot among the top three cryptocurrencies by market cap in 2024, following Bitcoin and Ethereum. VanEck anticipates a rise in DeFi activity on the Solana blockchain, positioning it in the forefront of the "spot ETF wars."

Binance's Dethroning and Changing Exchange Dynamics

The forecast also predicts Binance losing its throne as the top crypto exchange by spot trading volume in 2024. This shift is attributed to the company's $4.3 billion settlement with U.S. authorities and a year marred by regulatory issues. Analysts suggest that OKX, Bybit, or Coinbase might take over the leading spot. Furthermore, decentralized exchanges are expected to see a surge in market share compared to centralized exchanges, reaching new all-time highs.

NFT Renaissance and Blockchain Gaming Breakout

VanEck envisions a rebound in NFT activity, surpassing all-time highs in 2024. Speculators are anticipated to flock towards top collections on Ethereum, along with new offerings on the Bitcoin blockchain. The analysts also predict the arrival of a breakout blockchain game, adding a new dimension to the crypto landscape.

Stablecoin Resurgence and DeFi's KYC Adoption

Among other expectations, VanEck predicts a resurgence in stablecoin market cap, driven by USDC reversing its market share losses. Additionally, the DeFi industry is forecasted to reconcile with the idea of Know-Your-Customer (KYC) functionality on their front-ends, signaling a shift towards regulatory compliance.

It's crucial to note that VanEck may have positions in the digital assets mentioned, adding a layer of transparency to their forward-looking insights.

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