Deribit, a prominent derivatives exchange, is signaling a bullish sentiment in the bitcoin market for the spring of 2024, as indicated by the current put-call options ratio. The exchange notes a growing number of outstanding calls compared to puts in the open interest of bitcoin options, suggesting investor anticipation of a positive trajectory in the digital asset's price during the early months of 2024.
Options Analysis
The bitcoin put-call ratio has been observed fluctuating between 0.4 and 0.5 throughout the year, with a notable decline for longer-dated expiries. Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer, Luuk Strijers, interprets this trend as an indication that clients are increasingly using calls for positioning toward the March and June 2024 expiries. A put-call ratio below one, currently at 0.43, signifies bullish sentiment, with the call volume exceeding the put volume.
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| Source: Coinglass |
Market Dynamics
November has emerged as one of the most active months for Deribit, reflecting a broader uptick in crypto derivatives market activity. The increased levels of implied volatility (DVOL) have driven opportunities and overall market volumes, according to Strijers. Notably, the upcoming options expiry date on December 29 is anticipated to see substantial open interest, with $5.7 billion in bitcoin options notional open interest and $2.7 billion in ether options set to expire.
Options Traders' Sentiment
GreeksLive, aligning with Deribit's analysis, notes that the low put-call ratio suggests a focus on call options in recent trades. Options traders are reportedly betting on a rise centered around the approval of January spot ETFs, according to GreeksLive's options data analysis.
Conclusion
Deribit's analysis of the bitcoin put-call options ratio points towards a bullish outlook for the spring of 2024. The growing interest in call options and heightened market activity underscore the evolving dynamics of the crypto derivatives landscape. As the market anticipates key events, including the December 29 options expiry, investors are closely monitoring these indicators to navigate potential opportunities and risks in the evolving cryptocurrency market.
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