Bitcoin Price Recovery Anticipated to Outpace Previous Cycles, K33 Research Reports


Bitcoin's current drawdown, standing at a 36% decline from its November 2021 all-time high of approximately $69,000, is expected to experience a "significantly quicker" recovery compared to previous cycles, according to a report by K33 Research. The analysts attribute this projected swift recovery to the anticipation of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF approval, emphasizing the unprecedented institutional demand seen in the current market.

Key Points

Drawdown Duration: The ongoing drawdown has persisted for 755 days, marking a 36% reduction from Bitcoin's all-time high in November 2021. This contrasts with the recovery periods of 1,178 days post-2013 and 1,092 days post-2017.

Institutional Demand: The report highlights the distinctive feature of the current cycle, which involves institutional demand unparalleled in comparison to previous cycles. Major financial institutions are actively participating in the crypto space, endorsing Bitcoin publicly.

ETF Approval Anticipation: The primary driving force behind the current market momentum is the anticipation of U.S. ETF approval. The report notes that in 36 days, U.S. ETFs will receive their final verdict, with significant market demand observed for exposure ahead of potential launches.

Real and Compelling Narrative: K33 Research argues that the current upward trajectory is fueled by a genuine and compelling narrative, aligning with market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Cautionary Note on ETF Impact: The report acknowledges the potential impact of actual ETF flows on Bitcoin's price trajectory. Whether Bitcoin revisits the $69,000 all-time high depends on genuine ETF inflows in the initial weeks of trading, potentially leading to a "sell-the-news" moment in the following year.

SEC Decision Timeline: The SEC is yet to approve a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S., with pending decisions on applications from various firms, including BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie. The next deadlines for these decisions fall in mid-January.

Retail Participation: Despite Bitcoin's 164% year-to-date price rise, retail participation has not surged. Website traffic data, exchange reports, and Google search volumes for crypto-related terms indicate lower retail demand compared to Q3 2022.

Altcoin Performance: Bitcoin is currently trading at $43,747, experiencing a notable rally over the past week and month. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB exhibit varying performance, reflecting market dynamics and external factors.


The K33 Research report outlines a positive outlook for Bitcoin's recovery, emphasizing the unique characteristics of the current market cycle. The anticipation of U.S. ETF approval and institutional participation are identified as key drivers shaping Bitcoin's price trajectory, contributing to a narrative that differs from previous cycles. The impending ETF decision is expected to play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's short-term price movements, with market participants closely monitoring actual inflows post-approval.

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