Bitcoin Futures Signal Anticipation of Continued Price Surge in 2024, Deribit Analyst Notes

Deribit, a derivatives exchange, has observed indications in Bitcoin futures suggesting market expectations for the digital asset's appreciation in 2024. Deribit Chief Commercial Officer, Luuk Strijers, highlighted data showing an increasing futures premium above the spot price of Bitcoin for contracts expiring in March, June, and September 2024. This premium, known as the futures basis, exceeding 10%, serves as a strong indicator of market sentiment, signaling anticipation of continued price growth.

Key Insights

Futures Premium Trend: Deribit's data reveals a rising futures premium above the spot price of Bitcoin since early October, particularly for contracts expiring in the spring and summer of 2024.

Basis as a Market Indicator

Strijers emphasized that the increasing basis, the difference between the spot and future price, exceeding 10% is a noteworthy sign. The annualized basis in this context suggests the market expects a 10-12% rise in Bitcoin's value in the coming year.

Bitcoin's Recent Surge 

The price of Bitcoin recently surpassed $42,000. Strijers attributed this surge to several factors, including widespread optimism, anticipation of spot ETF decisions, resolution of legal matters for Binance, easing geopolitical tensions, a decrease in inflation concerns, and growing institutional engagement.

Market Sentiment Factors 

The confluence of positive factors, according to Strijers, has contributed to the recent Bitcoin rally. These factors include optimistic market sentiment, key decisions regarding spot ETF applications, resolution of legal issues for Binance, geopolitical developments, a decrease in inflation concerns, and increased institutional participation.

Market Status

As of the latest available data, Bitcoin was trading at $42,166, marking a 2% increase. The ongoing market dynamics, coupled with positive sentiment and various influencing factors, contribute to an environment where market participants are anticipating continued price appreciation.

Conclusion

Deribit's analysis of Bitcoin futures and the observed basis trend suggests that market participants are expressing confidence in the digital asset's growth potential into 2024. The confluence of favorable factors and the market's response underscore the evolving dynamics of cryptocurrency markets and the ongoing interest from institutional players.