Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rebound from a seven-month low has revived debate over whether the market is nearing a deeper downturn or preparing for a fresh reversal. With the price hovering around the $87,000 range after a brief dip to $81,000, on-chain data, macro shifts, and ETF flows are painting a picture of both caution and opportunity. Whales Accumulate as Retail Capitulates New on-chain figures from Santiment reveal a sharp divergence between large and small Bitcoin holders. Since November 11, wallets holding at least 100 BTC have surged, adding 91 new large addresses even as prices trended downward. This growing whale accumulation has historically appeared near long-term market bottoms, suggesting that strategic buying occurs during periods of weakness. Conversely, wallets holding 0.1 BTC or less continue to decline, reflecting elevated fear among retail investors. Santiment notes that heavy retail selling often sets the stage for later recoveries, once large entities absorb the supply and market pressure eases. The pattern mirrors earlier cycles in which deeper retail capitulation preceded major trend reversals. Mixed Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Signals Several key indicators are offering conflicting signals on Bitcoin’s next move. CryptoQuant data indicate that Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio is dipping into its “green zone,” suggesting that risk-adjusted returns are becoming more attractive, similar to levels observed before major uptrends in 2019, 2020, and 2022. Capriole Investments’ “Bitcoin Heater” metric has also returned to deep green, suggesting strong potential for upside movement. Yet not all metrics signal immediate recovery. The aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio), a reliable cyclical indicator, has spent nearly two years consolidating without reaching the “red line” levels that marked tops in previous bull runs. Analysts warn that a decisive breakout of this long consolidation pattern is imminent, though the direction remains unknown. Macro Forces and ETF Outflows Fuel Uncertainty Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin may retest the low $80,000s but expects the $80K level to hold as firm support, especially as the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening on December 1. Markets are also pricing in a 77% chance of an interest rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting, driving renewed optimism across risk assets. However, institutional flows tell a different story. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has recorded a staggering $2.35 billion in withdrawals this month, its largest outflow since launch. The wave of redemptions underscores weakening confidence among big-money players amid price volatility and macro uncertainty. Even so, Bitcoin’s recent 1.3% recovery to $88K, alongside strong rebounds in Ethereum, XRP, and major altcoins, shows that buyers are stepping back in. Analysts warn that volatility will remain elevated, however, if whale accumulation continues and macroeconomic conditions ease, Bitcoin may yet defend the crucial $80K support and attempt another push toward the $90K barrier. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
