With Bitcoin precariously recovering above the $100,000 mark and altcoins bleeding momentum, traders are asking the obvious: Is the crypto bull run over? According to systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade), the answer is not so clear-cut. In a detailed market breakdown posted June 22, Bakay offered a technically grounded, cautiously defensive assessment—one that acknowledges geopolitical risks but stays rooted in positioning and price structure. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? “Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are still technically in an uptrend,” Bakay wrote, noting that “no key swing low was broken, and the 365-day rolling VWAP has been respected during the pullback in April.” Despite this, he admits that “the failure to make new all-time highs similar to the top in 2021” is a concern—especially given the accumulation by players like BlackRock, which now holds around 3.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. It’s that divergence—between strong institutional interest and a market struggling to break higher—that has made Bakay more cautious in recent weeks. “This is why I have been very defensive and kept most of my trades short-term,” he said. Related Reading: Crypto Gets A Green Light From Spanish Banking Giant His trading view focuses on two potential technical scenarios: either a reclaim of the $100,000 support area—“likely if the conflict in the Middle East does not further escalate”—or a dip into the $97,000–$95,000 range, where strong technical support resides in the form of the 200-day moving average, local price structure, and the 90-day rolling VWAP. Still, Bakay made it clear he’s not shorting the market. “I am not currently considering any short trades due to my current positioning,” he emphasized, adding that open interest is dropping and that we are starting to see the “first signs of clear spot bid interest since the April lows.” The options market, meanwhile, is flashing early caution: the 25-delta risk reversal skew sits around -5, not yet at panic levels, but trending more negative. Crypto Bull Run In Jeopardy On Ethereum, Bakay was notably blunt. “ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,” he said. He attributes the failed breakout in part to how quickly the “DeFi Summer 2025” narrative went viral. “People are getting too horny, and market made sure to punish them,” he noted, referencing his own tweet from a few days earlier. Related Reading: Crypto’s Unlikely Ally: Top Analyst Reveals War As A Surprising Bullish Force The technical picture on ETH doesn’t inspire confidence either. “During significant market moves, like we had at the beginning of May, the last thing you want to see is price retracing throughout that area,” he explained, saying the next meaningful support lies near $1,800. On the daily chart, Ethereum is sitting right at a confluence of support—both the 90-day rolling VWAP and what he calls a “pivotal level.” Still, much like Bitcoin, Bakay sees Ethereum’s short-term fate as largely dependent on developments in the Middle East. On positioning, ETH also shows signs of an oversold environment, though Bakay believes high volatility in ETH options has caused traders to use spreads instead of outright directional bets. “Positioning is now very clearly pointing towards the possible upside reversal in both perpetual and spot,” he said. Altcoins received no reprieve. “Altcoins have not been having fun for quite a while,” Bakay wrote, pointing out that “every time it starts to look better, it will almost immediately get worse.” He notes that the expected rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins hasn’t materialized, and the real rotation now seems to be into crypto-related equities, which better reflect the ETF-driven macro trade. Even strong names like Solana are fading. “SOL has almost retraced the entire rally from April,” he warned. The key level to watch is $100. “There is not much of a technical support sub-$100,” and if “shit hits the fan,” Bakay would look to bid around that round number. Bakay also briefly touched on two newer altcoins—Hype and Fartcoin—saying one offers a solid product and the other draws interest through volatility and liquidity. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it could reclaim the $1 or $0.50 area. Hype could find a bounce sub-$30.” His closing thoughts were pragmatic: “We are not in easy market conditions, with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and markets can be significantly affected by a single news release.” While he believes the market may be “getting too short at the moment,” he remains highly conscious of the possibility that a multi-month correction is already in play. “I don’t think there is a need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would much rather wait for some positive news and signs of lower timeframe reversals.” In essence, Bakay doesn’t call the top. But his post makes one thing clear: this is not a market for bravado. It’s a time for restraint, tight risk management, and respect for volatility—especially when the bullish case no longer has momentum on its side. At press time, BTC traded at $101,847. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
