Summary Circle Internet Group remains a buy despite recent volatility and a 40% stock decline, with valuation now appearing reasonable. USDC, CRCL’s flagship stablecoin, posted 66% YoY revenue growth to $740 million and 57% adjusted EBITDA margin, underscoring strong profitability. Management guides for 40% CAGR in USDC circulation, but acknowledges growth headwinds from lower interest rates and competitive pressures. While not 'dirt cheap,' CRCL’s GARP profile and secular stablecoin adoption thesis support expectations for double-digit returns over the long term. Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ) has not escaped the volatility that hit high-growth stocks late last year. That volatility has coincided with lower interest rates and potentially slower USDC growth, which might have contributed to the downward pressure. Yet I still see a clear case for increasing stablecoin adoption long term, with USDC looking positioned to benefit courtesy of its various partnerships. Despite the dampened growth outlook, I reiterate my buy rating as the valuation is looking as reasonable as ever. CRCL Stock Price I last covered CRCL in September , where I initiated coverage as a high-risk, high reward play. The stock has plunged - without hyperbole - since. Data by YCharts The air has left the balloon. In the above report, I had written that “I find the stock buyable at these levels but expect significant volatility as investors may be uneasy about the high valuations given potentially low conviction in the consistency of forward growth rates.” The 40% slide has thoroughly addressed any such reservations. CRCL Stock Key Metrics CRCL is the owner of the stablecoin network ( USDC-USD ). USDC is the second largest stablecoin in the world, behind Tether ( USDT-USD ). Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that do not fluctuate in value due to being backed by reserves of cash and short-term US Treasury bills (or at least this is the case for USDC). Stablecoins are a new frontier, and CRCL is racing to grow its network. 2025 Q3 Presentation CRCL has been working with financial industry leaders to increase adoption and discover new use cases. 2025 Q3 Presentation In my eyes, the overarching thesis behind USDC and stablecoins in general is the lightning fast and secure transaction speeds that they allow for. The potential opportunity may then be viewed as corporations around the world replacing their “checking account cash” (working capital) with USDC. This is cash that corporations otherwise are not expecting to earn significant interest from in the first place. USDC has grown rapidly, helping to offset headwinds from declining short term US Treasury rates. 2025 Q3 Presentation This culminated in revenues growing 66% YoY to $740 million. 2025 Q3 Presentation The company was also significantly profitable, with adjusted EBITDA jumping 57% YoY to $166 million, representing a 57% margin. 2025 Q3 Presentation I note that the company is solidly profitable on a GAAP basis as well, with GAAP operating income coming in at 27.8% of gross profits even after subtracting out “other income.” 2025 Q3 Presentation Management continues to guide for around 40% CAGR in USDC circulation over the medium term. 2025 Q3 Presentation On the conference call , management noted their conviction in taking market share, noting that overall “stablecoin transaction volumes have grown approximately 130% year-over-year with USDC share expanding to 40% in Q3.” Management did note that they are “not focused on monetizing the network” but instead “want the network to grow so that it's creating value for all participants.” Management noted that “over time” there may be “many opportunities for very small fees,” as this is a “winner-take-most market structure.” I may be reading too much into the tea leaves, but I suspect that management may be trying to prepare investors for the potential for profit margins to decline in the near term. Is CRCL Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold? CRCL stock has struggled as of late. I see two primary reasons. First, interest rates continue to move lower as the market makes progress on inflation. Second, the company has seen some struggles to USDC growth in recent months . At recent prices, CRCL traded at just around 5.5x forward revenues. Seeking Alpha At this point, the optimism has let itself out. There are valid concerns with the bullish thesis. Revenues will face pressure if interest rates keep going lower, and that appears to be the current trend. It is possible, if not likely, that management’s guidance for 40% USDC circulation growth proves optimistic, as it is not immediately clear how they came to that target. It is, however, important to remember that USDC is still just around $75 billion. This is lower in comparison to the $700 billion in “trapped working capital” estimated by JP Morgan in 2024 . Of course, one must note that USDT already stands at nearly $200 billion, so a lot of the growth runway indeed has been played out. But that is to be expected at this stage in the bull market. I won’t make the claim that the stock is “dirt cheap.” I continue to assume that the company can achieve at least 15% net margins (implying around 50% margins based on gross profits). That places the valuation at around 37x long term earnings. The company might need to sustain around 15% to 20% growth to justify that valuation, which looks achievable long term, as at this point I view the move from checking account cash to stablecoin as being similar to e-commerce or video streaming. I was clearly early in my previous buy rating, and my growth outlook has dampened since, as I did not expect USDC growth to slow down on a sequential basis so quickly. Even so, the lower stock price has adequately priced-in the slight deterioration in fundamentals, and thus the stock looks like it’s priced for double-digit returns from here. I can see the company delivering around 20% growth at the very least over multi-year periods, as it benefits from its partnership with leading cryptocurrency firm Coinbase ( COIN ). Even after the fall, I do not see an immediate case for multiple expansion, which heightens the potential volatility, but this looks like a “GARP” kind of stock from here. CRCL Stock Risks If short term interest rates continue to decline, then CRCL may eventually see revenue growth compress. I would focus more on the growth of the USDC network, but it is also possible that USDC growth proves volatile or falls far short of management’s guidance. It is possible that USDT or others will win the market. It is possible that governments outlaw the use of stablecoins, preventing further growth. CRCL Stock Conclusion I must reiterate that CRCL is not that cheap here. It’s significantly less expensive than it was just a handful of months ago, but the company may see some volatility as it laps tough comparables and grapples with declining interest rates. That said, I like the GAAP profitability and long-term secular thesis, as stablecoins do appear to offer significant advantages over the slower and more expensive traditional financial system. I do not see “100-bagger” kind of upside potential here, as the real addressable market might be focused on checking account cash instead of all cash, but the valuation looks right given the strong momentum the company is seeing in rising USDC circulation.
