XRP’s price action is sitting at a critical juncture, with the altcoin consolidating at the base of a descending triangle — a pattern that often signals bearish pressure. The token hovered around the $2.75 support level on Friday, but analysts warned that sustained selling could push prices down toward the $2.65 to $2.45 range. Such a move would represent an 8% to 10% decline, coinciding with a daily fair value gap (FVG) overlapping the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area could act as a liquidity magnet while offering a potential springboard for a bullish recovery. Onchain Data Signals Strong Buyer Interest Onchain metrics support the view that XRP may be approaching an important liquidity pocket. Glassnode’s Unrealized Price Distribution (URPD) showed a dense cluster of buyers between $2.45 and $2.55, indicating a strong cost basis for many holders. If price returns to this range, buyers may defend it aggressively, potentially laying the groundwork for a rebound. The altcoin’s current behavior mirrors its fractal pattern from the first quarter. XRP has already tested the $2.65 mark twice, but historical price structures suggest a sweep below this level into the liquid-heavy FVG could occur before a sustainable rally emerges. Repeating Patterns Could Lead to Volatility Market watchers have noted similarities between today’s setup and earlier fractals. Previous patterns showed weakness heading into the weekend, followed by an FVG sweep early the following week. If this plays out again, XRP could revisit the $2.50 zone as soon as Monday. However, analysts caution that historical fractals do not guarantee a repeat performance. A decisive break above $2.90 could invalidate the bearish structure altogether, but current momentum still favors one last dip into the $2.50 area. Compression and ETF News Fuel Uncertainty Sistine Research observed that XRP may be entering a significant expansion phase in the coming months. The analysis highlighted how XRP’s tight price action over the past 10 weeks has compressed its order book, leaving larger gaps between levels. This marks the third compression phase since the US elections in November 2024 and the tightest so far, built on three consecutively higher price points. Such conditions have historically preceded sharp breakouts as built-up liquidity is released. Crypto analyst Pelin Ay pointed to spot market flows as evidence of the battle between buyers and sellers. The 90-day spot taker CVD indicates that sellers remain in control despite brief bursts of buyer strength earlier in 2025. A sustained upside move will require a decisive shift in volume from buyers, which has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, ETF news adds another layer of uncertainty. Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been postponed until Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR product debuted with nearly $38 million in first-day volume. Analysts warn that optimism may already be priced in, heightening the risk of a “sell the news” reaction when decisions are finalized.
