Blockchain-powered prediction market Polymarket is reportedly gearing up for a return to the United States, with investors suggesting its valuation could soar as high as $10 billion. The development underscores a surge of enthusiasm around decentralized prediction markets and the broader crypto sector. From $1 Billion to $10 Billion? According to sources cited by Business Insider, Polymarket is actively exploring a US comeback while pursuing a new funding round. The latest financing effort could more than triple the company’s valuation since June, when it was pegged at $1 billion. One investor has already priced Polymarket at up to $10 billion, reflecting heightened expectations for the company’s growth. Back in June, the firm raised $200 million in a round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, a venture capital powerhouse known for its early bets on OpenAI, Paxos, and Palantir. Political Forecasting Boosts Growth Polymarket rose to prominence during the 2024 US presidential election, when its trading activity surged. The platform’s prediction markets gained credibility after accurately anticipating Donald Trump’s victory, attracting significant attention from traders and the media alike. Data from analytics platform Dune shows that user activity reached record levels during the election period, with monthly active traders climbing rapidly. Navigating CFTC Challenges Despite its popularity, Polymarket was barred from operating in the US in 2022 after settling with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That setback pushed the company to focus on international users while it sought a pathway back into the American market. In July, Polymarket took a key step forward by acquiring Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX. This move provided a regulatory foothold in the US and positioned the company for compliance. The CFTC followed up in September with a no-action letter granting QCX relief from certain reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. CEO Shayne Coplan welcomed the decision, saying it effectively gave Polymarket “the green light to go live in the USA.” Rival Platforms Also Expanding Polymarket’s renewed push comes at a time of intensifying competition. Rival platform Kalshi has been making headlines of its own, reportedly working toward a $5 billion valuation through a new funding round. Earlier this year, Paradigm led a $185 million raise for Kalshi, which was valued at $2 billion at the time. Kalshi’s momentum was helped by a 2024 court ruling that allowed it to list political-event contracts, a move that survived a CFTC appeal. The legal victory cemented its ability to offer politically themed markets under existing US regulations. A Growing Market for Predictions Market analysts note that both Polymarket and Kalshi remain among the most active prediction platforms, though user activity has tapered since the election. Still, fresh momentum is emerging. The kickoff of the National Football League season has driven significant volumes, with analyst Tarek Mansour pointing out that Kalshi alone processed $441 million since Week 1. He wrote, “NFL Week 1 is equal to a US election,” underscoring how sports markets are filling the gap left by election cycles. For Polymarket, the combination of regulatory progress, strong investor interest, and proven user demand could make its US return one of the most closely watched moves in the crypto sector this year.
