Bitcoin’s price is seen as a market bellwether. Analyst Matthew (@OneBasedMoney) suggests it follows a power law model , doubling roughly every 12.7% of its lifespan—indicating exponential, not linear, growth. Currently, Bitcoin is in a quiet phase, often a precursor to major bullish runs. Macro Outlook & Scarcity Matthew compares Bitcoin to fiat money supply (~$26T), which is expected to rise due to future monetary easing. As fiat is devalued, scarce assets like Bitcoin (21M cap) become more attractive, reinforcing its role as a hedge against inflation. Price Target: $250K–$350K by End of 2025 Based on his model, Bitcoin could reach $250,000–$350,000 by late 2025 / early 2026 , aligning with previous cycle peaks. Matthew believes Bitcoin’s value is now driven 95% by internal adoption trends—not macro events—highlighting a maturing market led by users, tech, and institutions. Final Surge Likely While long-term growth may slow, a euphoric end-of-cycle rally remains probable, fueled by rising spot ETF interest and institutional flows. However, questions linger about Bitcoin’s role as fiat expands and markets evolve. Conclusion: Bullish Outlook Despite uncertainties, Bitcoin’s fundamentals—fixed supply, growing adoption, and institutional interest—support a strong bullish case. Whether investing or observing, understanding price models and market cycles is key in navigating crypto’s future.
