Seeking Alpha
2026-01-18 13:15:00

Rezolve AI: Crownpeak Deal And 2026 ARR Goals Are Worth Speculating On (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Rezolve AI’s Brain Suite targets higher e-commerce conversion via conversational shopping (Brain Commerce) and one-tap checkout (Brain Checkout). These tools can help customers achieve higher conversion rates across web, app, email, and stores. Its Brainpowa LLM is trained and commerce-tuned, using a verification layer to reduce hallucinations and tailor responses, which is promising on paper. However, 2025 as a whole changed RZLV’s prospects entirely. Their equity raises and acquisitions throughout the year materially grew the revenue base. Ultimately, based on their recent guidance, I believe RZLV’s EV now seems quite compelling for investors willing to speculate on their execution going forward. Rezolve AI plc ( RZLV ) is a software company that offers AI agents for e-commerce platforms. The idea is that these tools can improve engagement and obtain higher conversion rates for its customers. RZLV’s main product is Brain Suite, including Brain Commerce for conversational shopping, and Brain Checkout for streamlined cart-to-payment flows across several channels like web, app, email, and in-store. Recently, RZLV has added fresh institutional capital, acquired visual search, and blockchain data infrastructure. They also have partnerships using distribution pathways via Google Cloud (GOOGL) ( GOOG ) and Microsoft Azure ( MSFT ). But more importantly, post-acquisition and capital raises, RZLV now looks (at least on paper) like a viable speculative “Buy” at these levels. Revamped AI SaaS Rezolve AI plc is, at its core, a software-as-a-service (SaaS) company that develops artificial intelligence ((AI)) agents for e-commerce. The company was incorporated in 2023 with an office in London, UK. I previously covered RZLV last March, but since then, the stock has appreciated significantly, made a major acquisition, and bolstered its balance sheet. So, I thought it was worthwhile updating my thesis on this name. Source: Investor Presentation. July 2025. You see, RZLV’s core product family is the Brain Suite , which includes software for recommendations (Brain Commerce) and to facilitate transactions (Brain Checkout). The suite offers rapid deployment with minimal development using an application programming interface ((API)), where the business is required to feed its catalog, pricing, inventory, promos, and related information. Interestingly, RZLV’s Brain Checkout module supports payments in crypto, with the merchant receiving fiat (crypto-to-fiat). This feature often means that the system integrates with a processor that accepts crypto stablecoins on the consumer side, and settles to the merchant in USD/EUR or others. Brain Suite is powered by a proprietary large language model [LLM] called Brainpowa . This LLM was trained using 300 billion pieces of text (tokens) and fine-tuned on commerce-specific data to achieve better performance in the retail context. The software detects sentiment, like urgency or frustration, to adjust tone and escalation. Brainpowa is designed to reduce hallucinations thanks to a verification layer where answers are checked against a trusted source before being shown to users. Similarly, Brain Commerce specializes in retail behavior, managing product attributes, and shopping intent, capable of showing the right product for the customer, aiming for sales conversion. It is a system that works end-to-end for conversational discovery to AI search and recommendations. Source: Investor Presentation. July 2025. However, the interesting portion of their business comes with Brain Checkout , which is their AI last-mile module. This offering basically takes a shopper from cart to payment and fulfillment with fewer clicks and is integrated with the merchant’s e-commerce and payment stack. The user can initiate and finalize the purchase inside the conversation itself, which can lead to higher conversion rates. This software can be used across several channels, such as web, mobile app, email links, and in-store experiences. And the payment transactions plug into third-party payment processors with payment card industry data security standards (PCI-DSS) compliance. Major Developments Having said that, by July 2025, RZLV announced that it had secured fresh capital with a $50 million investment by two new institutional investors, one of them being Citadel Global Equities, to use in product innovation. Later, RZLV acquired ViSenze , a company specializing in visual search applied in retail for product discovery. Another acquisition was made in December, when the company bought Crownpeak , a digital experience platform to improve content management and product discovery. In my view, this latter acquisition completely changed its prospects (more on this later). Moreover, by October 2025, RZLV acquired SQD (Subsquid), and since then, it has used SQD Network as the subsidiary name. There is a crypto utility token, also called SQD, that is tied to this network. RZLV intends to build a token treasury position by acquiring SQD tokens equivalent to at least 1% of the company’s annual revenues each year. Though time will tell how this crypto strategy plays out in the long run, I think the main story here lies with Crownpeak. Still, last December, they did announce they’d fund SQD Network’s data infrastructure through revenue pools . Enterprises pay subscription and service fees for SQD’s data services, and those payments are routed into a pool that helps finance the service. Source: Investor Presentation. July 2025. Aside from that, RZLV continued its partnerships with Microsoft and Google to make it easier for businesses already on Google Cloud or Microsoft Azure to adopt RZLV’s Brain Suite. Google Cloud’s sales channels are expected to distribute RZLV’s suite globally, hoping to contribute more than 50% of forecasted revenues over the coming years. In fact, RZLV’s suite is available through Microsoft Azure Marketplace, which also simplifies enterprise procurement and deployment. Microsoft also mentions co-sell, meaning that Microsoft’s sales motion can bring RZLV into its deals, while it also validates RZLV’s growth ambitions to some extent. Plus, RZLV expects that Microsoft's go-to-market support amounts to around $130 million over time, thanks to credibility and easing in distribution via the Azure ecosystem. Source: Investor Presentation. July 2025. Furthermore, just a few days ago, RZLV guided to $40 million for full-year 2025. However, in this new guidance, the true headline was their $350 million revenue target for the full year 2026, which is nearly double the previous market expectations of about $170 million. The company also said it exited 2025 with a $209 million annualized run-rate ((ARR)), and that December 2025 revenue exceeded $17 million, calling it its first profitable month. The company claims that December performance implies a much higher starting run-rate going into 2026. Valuation And Risk Analysis Now, from a valuation perspective, the stock itself is up around 306% from its 2025 lows, which shows they’ve already had an impressive run-up despite the recent 37% decline from their 2025 highs. However, the latest detailed financial information we have comes from their 6-K filing for 1H2025. At the time, their balance sheet held $9.9 million in cash against $33.5 million in financial debt (loans and notes), aside from other operating liabilities. Source: RZLV’s 1H2025 6-K. However, it’s worth highlighting that the Q2 2025 earnings call mentioned that, by Q3, RZLV successfully raised two financing rounds for a total of $250 million. They also disclosed they ended September 2025 with approximately $230 million in cash. Though note that those raises also diluted shareholders, including their recent acquisition of Crownpeak. So, basically, RZLV now has around 322 million shares outstanding post-raises and post-acquisition. That number aligns with what we do know, since the raises added ( PIPE + private placement ), and the Crownpeak acquisition involved issuing shares. RZLV also repaid some of Crownpeak’s debts (a $50 million term loan and $7.5 million revolver). That’s why I would adjust their September $230 million cash figure to roughly $172.5 million post-acquisition. But note I excluded other potential integration costs, working capital adjustments, etc., to work with a simple estimate. I also calculate that RZLV burned through approximately $10.0 million during Q2 2025. I got this figure by adding its quarterly cash flows from operations and CAPEX. Using the same approach, I calculate Crownpeak’s 2025 cash burn at $14.9 million (or about $3.7 million per quarter). That would add to a combined estimated cash burn of $13.8 million per quarter, assuming the same burn rate persisted through Q4. Thus, that would imply RZLV’s cash position by the start of 2026 is closer to $158.7 million. And more importantly, it would show they probably have an ample cash runway of around 11.5 quarters. Source: Investor Presentation. July 2025. Moreover, at the current $4.60 PPS, those figures imply a market cap of around $1.48 billion. They also added Crownpeak’s term loan of $103.7 million and a $50 million loan used as consideration for the acquisition. Thus, my EV estimate is around $1.5 billion today. And if we assume their $500 million 2026 exit ARR target materializes, it would price RZLV at a forward EV/S of 3.0. For comparison, their sector’s median forward EV/S is actually slightly higher at 3.6. Plus, they target a sizeable TAM, which they estimate at roughly $480-$540 billion . So, if anything, RZLV may actually be somewhat cheap at these levels based on those multiples. On top of that, RZLV would be effectively growing at a much faster clip than its peers’ forward topline growth rate of only 8.3% , which should deserve a premium multiple. But note that RZLV, as it stands today, appears to be growing its ARR quite rapidly. So, depending on how their post-acquisition margins evolve, it’s possible this cash burn figure will change drastically in the coming quarters. And remember, RZLV’s standalone Q2 2025 EBIT margins were -513.3%, so this is their key risk now in my view. Source: Seeking Alpha. If their margins worsen or remain negative, I would imagine their runway will actually decrease quickly as their ARR increases. Conversely, if margins improve or turn positive, they could quickly become self-sustainable. We have to wait until their next update to have a clearer picture on this, but my guess is that their margins aren’t likely to improve significantly at first because acquisition and integration costs tend to be front-loaded. So, this variable alone could make or break RZLV’s investment thesis in the long run, which is why RZLV ultimately remains highly speculative for now. Conclusion: Speculative “Buy” Overall, RZLV post-acquisition and capital raises now look like a much more compelling bet than when I first covered it. Naturally, there are several assumptions in my speculative bull case and valuation approach. Also, RZLV’s ARR growth targets seem quite aggressive, and they may not materialize entirely as management expects. And, even if growth materializes like that, their margins may deteriorate in the process and lead to an unsustainable runway. All of these factors create considerable uncertainty for investors at this stage as well. I believe the ingredients for success appear to be there, but until we see their next detailed update, I can only rate RZLV as a viable speculative “buy” given their acquisition and strengthened balance sheet. But, please size your position carefully, as there’s limited information about their actual operations (and by extension, prospects) until we have their 6-K post-acquisition later this year.

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