The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday it will not publish the October jobs report, after a 44‑day government shutdown stopped workers from gathering any of the numbers. The agency said the October payroll count will now be bundled with November’s release, and it made clear the October unemployment rate won’t show up in that report either because the data “could not be collected.” The shutdown happened under President Donald Trump, and it froze several federal offices that track the jobs market. The BLS also moved the November jobs report to December 16 from the original December 5 date. That puts the release six days after the Federal Reserve ends its final policy meeting of the year. The September nonfarm payrolls report, already delayed once, will finally come out on Thursday. Traders are now adjusting their expectations because there’s no clean read on where the labor market stands. Traders recalc bets as Fed minutes expose split views With no October jobs data and several Fed officials leaning hawkish in recent comments, traders pushed up the odds that the Fed holds its benchmark rate steady. By midday Wednesday, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 63.8% chance of the rate staying at 3.75%-4%. That was near 50% earlier in the day. The missing report is forcing markets to guess, and the guessing got louder after the Fed released minutes from its October meeting. Those minutes showed a committee divided over what matters more right now: a slowing labor market or inflation that isn’t dropping fast enough. Even though the Federal Open Market Committee approved a quarter‑point cut, the 10-2 vote didn’t show the full split. Some officials supported the rate cut, saying the economy needed it. Several said they could have gone either way. Others argued against cutting at all. The minutes spelled it out: “Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December,” while “many participants suggested that… it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.” In Fed language, “many” signals a stronger group than “several.” But none of that tells the public what the voters think, since only 12 out of 19 participants actually vote. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking after the meeting, told reporters a December cut was not a “foregone conclusion.” Before Powell said that, traders were almost certain there would be another cut at the December 9‑10 meeting. By Wednesday afternoon, that probability fell to below a one‑in‑three chance. The minutes did state that “most participants” see more cuts coming in the future, but not necessarily in December. Fed argues policy as shutdown kills key economic reports The minutes also showed that officials were unsure how “restrictive” the current policy really is. Some argued the quarter‑point cut still leaves rates too high for the economy. Others said strong economic activity shows policy might not be restrictive at all. Stephen Miran pushed for a half‑point cut. Jeffrey Schmid voted no, saying he didn’t want a cut under current conditions. Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Susan Collins, and Alberto Musalem all expressed concerns about cutting too much while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target . Moderates like Philip Jefferson and John Williams called for patience. The shutdown made the arguments messy. Reports on the labor market, inflation, and other key metrics weren’t collected during the impasse. The BLS and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have announced new release dates for some reports, but not all. Powell said the Fed was “driving in the fog,” though Waller rejected that line on Monday, saying the Fed still has plenty of information. The minutes also confirmed the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet in December. The reduction of Treasury and mortgage‑backed securities has cut more than $2.5 trillion so far, but the balance sheet is still around $6.6 trillion. Officials showed broad agreement on ending the process known as quantitative tightening. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
