Arthur Hayes just lit a rhetorical Molotov and hurled it straight at the European Central Bank (ECB). The longtime crypto trader and former BitMEX CEO used his “Bastille Day” essay to accuse ECB chief Christine Lagarde of being a “crocodilian ex-con countess” and a “criminal” running monetary policy from Frankfurt. Arthur urged Europeans to dump the euro and convert their savings into Bitcoin, warning that France’s finances are collapsing and the ECB will eventually unleash trillions in new money. He compared France’s current crisis to the monarchy’s downfall after financing American independence, saying the same boomerang effect is now hitting the Fifth Republic. Arthur wrote that France is too indebted, its savers are fleeing, and the euro is doomed. According to him, the ECB will be forced to print, and Bitcoin will be the winner. Arthur called the euro “an absolute stinking piece of sh*t” and “an abomination created to stifle local culture.” He said past predictions of collapse during the 2011–2012 crisis failed because Germany and France printed together, but this time, Germany and France are pulling in opposite directions. TARGET balances from January 2020 show France moving from surplus to the largest deficit in the eurozone, a sign that French savers are moving funds to safer systems in Germany and Luxembourg. “If the second-largest economy in the euro with the largest debt load is experiencing a bank walk, it doesn’t bode well for the future of the common currency,” he wrote. Arthur points to France’s debt and ECB printing plans Arthur argued that France is trapped, as US foreign policy changes mean German and Japanese capital will no longer fund France’s deficits. He reminded readers that after WWII, America tolerated ex-Nazis and Japanese imperialists in power as long as their countries remained bulwarks against communism. With US support, Germany and Japan rebuilt industries, protected their markets, and exported to America. That history left them with massive wealth: Germany’s net portfolio balance stands at $4.968 trillion, Japan’s at $4.446 trillion. By contrast, France runs a deficit of 38% of GDP, second only to the US. He wrote that as America shifts to “America-first” industrial policy under Donald Trump, Germany and Japan will repatriate capital to fund domestic industries. Arthur quoted Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing promoting a “Made for Germany” agenda and cited Sanae Takaichi of Japan pushing “Japan First” policies. That, he said, leaves France exposed: 59% of its OAT bonds and 70% of its long-term bank debt are foreign-owned, largely by Germany and Japan. With no foreign checkbooks left, Arthur said France must either default or rely on the ECB’s printing press, calculating that saving EU banks from French liabilities would require €5.02 trillion. Arthur then pointed to Macron’s failed attempts to pass a budget and quoted French leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who said: “The 3000 billion in debt is not ours. It belongs to foreign investors at 60%. Let them be cautious with the French.” Arthur warns of capital flight, controls, and Bitcoin surge Arthur predicted that French savers will see their euros re-denominated into a weaker franc. He said a weaker franc would help exports and tourism but would crush savings. Both left and right resent ECB control, he wrote, making a French exit from the euro inevitable. He pointed out July 2025 deposits at €2.6 trillion and estimated €650 billion could flee before controls are imposed. He calculated that $1.68 trillion in French equities and bonds could be sold, with $1.15 trillion escaping quickly at current FX rates, and Arthur thinks those trillions would rush into Bitcoin and gold . Arthur described the chain reaction like this: So once France imposes controls, other euro members will defy Frankfurt and Brussels, and Germany’s decision will decide the euro’s fate, but investors will dump euro assets regardless, creating a “risk-off” event that crashes EU stocks and bonds. The EuroStoxx 50 and EuroAgg Bond Index have already been underperforming against Bitcoin and gold since 2021, causing Arthur to mock Europe for buying expensive American gas over cheaper Russian supply and said investors should “just get the f*ck out.” “Bitcoin doesn’t care and will continue its inexorable rise versus the piece of trash that is the euro,” he wrote. He warned that EU regulators will close exits, so Europeans must move savings into Bitcoin now. Arthur ended his essay by saying the collapse will be so large that those who cash out early may flaunt riches at Bastille Day parties, “light capital on fire by purchasing a Nebuchadnezzar of bubbly water and fist pump to Rufus in the middle of the afternoon.” Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
