BNB surged more than 10% over the weekend, reaching a record level above $1,080 while the broader cryptocurrency market remained relatively flat. The rally has put the Binance-linked token in price discovery, fueling speculation about whether it can extend its upward trajectory in the weeks ahead. Short-Term Risks From Overbought Levels The latest rally pushed BNB’s relative strength index (RSI) into overbought territory on the four-hour chart. This typically signals the risk of a cooling-off period or correction. The token has already slipped nearly 3% from its intraday peak of $1,083.50. Technical indicators point toward a potential retest of the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour chart, which currently sits near $1,012. That level also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement zone, strengthening the case for a short-term pullback. If selling pressure intensifies, the correction could extend deeper, with support at the 50-period EMA around $974. Analyst Sees Strong Support at $970 Despite the overbought risks, analysts remain optimistic about BNB’s broader trend. Market commentator Gael Gallot pointed out that BNB’s ability to stay above $970 is a sign of resilience, citing surging trading volumes and long positions dominating the derivatives market. “BNB broke the 1000 mark and set a new high at 1074 before settling near support at 987 to 990,” Gallot noted. “Trading volume hit 3.28 billion during the move, and momentum remains strong with a long short ratio of 17.71, showing bullish positioning.” This $970 zone also coincides with the lower boundary of BNB’s ascending channel pattern, which has guided price action since June. Historically, each retest of this trendline has triggered rebounds ranging between 20% and 35%. October Target Above $1,150 If this pattern repeats, BNB could be on track to surpass $1,150 in October. That would represent a 10% gain from current levels, even if the token first consolidates closer to the $970 support. The channel’s historical reliability adds weight to this projection. At the same time, the breakout has revived comparisons to earlier BNB rallies. In 2020–2021, the token skyrocketed more than 2,600% after breaking through an ascending triangle pattern. Year-End Prospects Point to $1,250 and Beyond On longer-term charts, BNB is forming what analysts describe as a bullish cup-and-handle structure. The recent move above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $1,037 has flipped that level into support. Upside targets now include $1,250, projected from the cup-and-handle breakout, and potentially $1,565, based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. If momentum holds, BNB could see its strongest phase of the cycle in the final months of the year. On-Chain Indicators Support Optimism BNB’s on-chain data appears to support the bullish technical outlook. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has returned to the optimism-anxiety zone. This level was last observed during the 2020–2021 bull market, when BNB rallied from under $50 to more than $600. The metric suggests that most holders are in profit and lean optimistic, conditions often associated with mid-cycle strength. While short-term corrections are still possible, both technical and on-chain signals indicate that BNB could be gearing up for its most decisive rally since the last major bull run.
