As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a volatile yet increasingly bullish market , a crypto analyst points to key developments that could drive a breakout past $130,000 . From macroeconomic shifts to major technical breakouts and unexpected geopolitical tailwinds, the analyst outlines four critical factors to watch this week that could significantly impact BTC’s price action. The Trump-EU Trade Deal On July 27, crypto analyst Doctor Profit posted a detailed macro report on X social media, highlighting Bitcoin and certain bullish events unfolding around it. Before addressing the latest US trade developments , the market expert noted that Bitcoin recently pulled off a major technical move that went largely unnoticed by the market. After facing four consecutive months of rejection from November 2024 to February 2025, BTC finally broke through a long-term diagonal resistance tied to its 2021 all-time high . It then retested the level as support and followed through with a strong bullish move. On the macro front, Doctor Pillows suggested that a significant shift in the global trade policy could fuel Bitcoin’s continued upward momentum. He highlighted President Donald Trump’s announcement of a landmark trade agreement between the US and European Union, easing fears of a potential tariff war . The analyst described this deal as one of the most bullish trade agreements since 2016, noting that markets are likely to respond positively to the reduced geopolitical risks . With stocks set to open higher and economic friction easing between two of the world’s largest economies, Bitcoin also stands to benefit from the improved macro environment . Whale Panic Vs. ETF Power Earlier this week, Bitcoin saw a brief drop to $114,500 after wallet activity from Galaxy Digital sparked concerns of a potential selloff. However, according to Doctor Profit, those fears quickly faded as spot ETF inflows continued to outpace Bitcoin’s daily issuance. Institutions like BlackRock are also steadily absorbing supply, reinforcing strong underlying demand. Most importantly, the analyst highlighted that many long-term whale wallets remain inactive, indicating that the broader accumulation trend is still intact. Rather than signaling weakness, Doctor Profit suggests that the recent price dip appeared to have been a temporary shakeout that highlights the strength of the ongoing bull market . M2 Money Supply Sees Increase In his report, Doctor Profit stated that Bitcoin’s real macro engine is emerging from M2 Money Supply growth. Despite ongoing narratives around quantitative tightening, the analyst highlights that M2 has risen by 2.3% in 2025 so far, including a sharp 0.63% spike between May and June— the largest monthly increase this year. Historically, Bitcoin has closely followed M2 expansion , as seen during the 2020 liquidity surge that fueled an 800% rally. While exact outcomes vary, Doctor Profit suggests that the current pace of growth points to a potential 15-17.5% BTC rally to above $130,000 in the coming weeks, based on the cryptocurrency’s typical 60-90 day lag in reacting to monetary expansion. FOMC Meeting And Potential Rate Cut As his final bullish point, Doctor Profit mentioned the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday. While the official stance remains “hawkish,” with only a 5% chance of a rate cut, the analyst noted that the Federal Reserve (FED) has been quietly expanding liquidity and printing. This growing disconnect between Chair Jerome Powell ’s rhetoric and the FED’s actual monetary actions is noteworthy. It suggests that the FED may already be laying the groundwork for the next round of quantitative easing. Given Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to monetary policy shifts , the cryptocurrency may be well-positioned to rally significantly once the pivot becomes more apparent.
