Summary Reiterate Buy rating on Bitcoin despite recent drop below $90,000, viewing current fear as a buying opportunity. BTC's investment thesis remains intact: crypto-friendly policies, ETF flows, and institutional adoption continue to support long-term upside. Technical indicators show low RSI and declining exchange balances, historically signaling strong future price appreciation for BTC. Potential upside to $140,000 exists if gold rotates into BTC; risks include high long-term holder sales and loss of technical support levels. Investment Thesis I reiterate the recommendation to buy Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) even after the recent price drop. This article is the continuation of my initial coverage thesis published on November 29, 2024, and my last article on the topic was published on October 3, 2025. Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, and many investors are beginning to panic, especially as several analysts argue that they may be at the beginning of crypto winter. My intention with this article is to refute such arguments and reaffirm that the investment thesis in Bitcoin remains attractive. First Argument In my opinion, we need to revisit basic investment principles in this case. The Fear & Greed Index indicates that Bitcoin investors are scared right now. However, as Warren Buffett would say, you should be cautious when others are greedy and greedy when others are cautious. Fear & Greed Index (Glassnode) If we use this concept, would you prefer to buy Bitcoin when it is at an all-time high or when it is at $90,000? Note that in the first case, the risk-return ratio is unattractive; however, we have a great chance of obtaining good returns in the second case, and this is my first reason for you to be greedy at this moment. In parallel, although I am not a technical analysis enthusiast, the chart below shows that Bitcoin's relative strength index is at extremely low levels, and at other times, this was a great buying opportunity. RSI (Koyfin) Second Argument The investor needs to remember the reasons that made him invest when the price is not in his favor. In the case of my investment theses , the arguments were: Crypto-Friendly Politicians , investment flow to ETFs, and institutional and corporate adoption. If you look closely, all the pillars are still preserved. A great recent example was Citi announcing that it should launch cryptocurrency and Bitcoin custody services in 2026. In short, don't let yourself be manipulated just by the price! Of course you should observe, but also observe the reasons that led you to buy Bitcoin. News about Citi (SA) Third Argument After analyzing basic investment principles, I intend to analyze technical data now. The graph below shows that the amount of bitcoins available on exchanges is decreasing radically. But what is the interpretation of this? Basically, the immediate supply of bitcoins for sale is reduced, which tends to be positive, not to mention that such a movement preceded strong increases in the past. Bitcoin Exchanges Balance (CoinGlass) Fourth Argument Bloomberg Intelligence reported the outflow of $2.7 billion in Bitcoin ETFs in the last month. While many may feel that this undermines one of the pillars of the investment thesis, we can see from the chart below that the movement is not linear. This is only about 1.5% of total assets. In my opinion, this is a market movement rather than a sign that one of the pillars of the investment thesis has weakened. Bitcoin ETF Flows Since Launch at $59.9 Billion (Bloomberg Intelligence) Fifth Argument Finally, I will provide a comparison that will also serve as a metric to estimate a target price. According to the study below, if there is a rotation of just a small percentage of gold for Bitcoin, we are talking about an unimaginable jump in prices. BTC Rotation (Bitwise) If we are conservative and estimate a rotation of just 2%, we have an upside of 50%, which would take Bitcoin to a price of $140,000. Based on this analysis, I reiterate the recommendation to buy Bitcoin. But of course, you need a trigger for this. I believe this upside could come from President Trump's idea of giving checks to the population for the gains from tariffs. In 2020, when the US Government sent checks , Bitcoin soared by more than 350%. Now, let's analyze the risks to the thesis. Potential Threats To The Thesis I will recommend that investors be aware of some risks. The first is the sales volume of bitcoin holders. For reference, at the end of September, around 815 thousand bitcoins had been sold by these holders, one of the highest levels since January 2024. Bitcoin: Long-term Holder Spending (CryptoQuant) Another signal to monitor comes from technical analysis. Although I am not an enthusiast, apparently Bitcoin has lost the 50-period simple moving average, which has been acting as a support in recent times. Weekly Chart (TrendSpider) Finally, it is always interesting to pay extra attention when an asset in your portfolio appears in headlines like the one in the figure below. When brokers, banks, and other market participants begin to raise target prices for an asset, it is a sign of skepticism. News (Bloomberg) The Bottom Line Bitcoin has reached $90,000 again, and of course, we have many more worried investors than investors ready to take advantage of the opportunity. Likewise, many analysts are looking for reasons to corroborate the thesis of Crypto Winter. I disagree with these pessimistic opinions and brought robust arguments to indicate that we are facing an opportunity. Basically, all the arguments that point to rising Bitcoin prices remain intact, and what we are contemplating, in my opinion, is a market movement. Based on this analysis, I reiterate the recommendation to buy Bitcoin. In my opinion, situations like we currently see were great opportunities in the past, and I believe they will become opportunities again.
