The crypto market now sees a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September as the baseline expectation Polymarket data shows an 83% probability for a 25 bps cut, with only 13% betting on a hold A rate cut is a major bullish catalyst for crypto, as the ECB has already begun its easing cycle The prediction market Polymarket is showing an overwhelming consensus for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting. Data from the crypto-based platform shows that bettors are assigning a combined 87% probability to the Fed cutting rates by at least 25 basis points, a move that would be a major tailwind for the crypto market. Sourced from Polymarket Breakdown of the Bets on Polymarket The vast majority of users are betting on a cut, with very few expecting the Fed to hold rates steady or raise them. What is the most likely outcome? According to the data, 83% of users on the platform are betting on a standard 25 bps rate cut. This is the clear base-case scenario that the market is pricing in. What are the outlier bets? A smaller, more aggressive cohort of 4% is betting on a larger 50 bps cut. Only 13% of users believe the Fed will hold rates steady,… The post For Crypto, a 25 Bps Rate Cut is Now the Baseline Expectation for September appeared first on Coin Edition .
