Summary DDC Enterprise has shifted from food products to becoming a Bitcoin treasury, now holding over 1,000 BTC and targeting 5,000 BTC by FY 2028. The stock currently trades at little or no premium to its Bitcoin holdings, with future value highly dependent on BTC price and share dilution. Scenario modeling suggests a potential 56.6% upside by 2028, but this is subject to high discount rates and significant execution risks. Despite the upside, I rate DDC as 'Hold' due to risks from its Chinese domicile, possible delisting, and a lack of clear long-term business strategy. You might have been fooled by this stock—it's definitely not a food products company anymore. DDC Enterprise ( DDC ) filed for an IPO two years ago to raise capital for its ready-to-cook meal business in China—but forget about meat. Now it's all about cooking Bitcoins. Those who have been my readers for a while will know that earlier this year I covered a similar story with Top Win International, a watch reseller that took advantage of the cash it was sitting on after its IPO and transitioned to a Bitcoin treasury. Shortly afterward, it changed its ticker to AsiaStrategy ( SORA ). And besides Bitcoin, do you know what else is similar between them? Neither was working with their previous business models. A quick look at DDC Enterprise's financial statements tells us: Stagnant revenues, even after the IPO; SG&A covering all reported gross profit, resulting in negative EBIT since FY 2020; Significant net loss, reaching an EPS of -$14.95 in FY 2024; Negative OCF, increased by certain fluctuations in operating assets. Consequently, in every year since FY 2020, DDC has not reported a single positive FCF, increasing its long-term debt every year to protect its cash. So, as you can probably guess, much like the former Top Win, DDC Enterprise looks like an easy candidate to turn into a Bitcoin treasury. It raised $33 million in its IPO, but was quickly burning through it in its core business anyway. Where They Are and Where They Want to Go Right now, there are two sources tracking how much BTC DDC has on its books. The first one, from August 25 , notes they picked up another 200 BTC, pushing their total stash to 888 BTC—worth about $98.95 million as of August 28. Since their average price is $107,447, they are up +3.7%. Seeking Alpha Basically, the same press release tells us they have 1,000 shares for 0.106853 BTC. Doing some basic math, we can say that DDC has approximately 8.3 million shares. The second source puts DDC's stash even higher—at 1,008 BTC. That's 120 more than what the last press release mentioned, bringing the total value to about $112.33 million. In this case, the average price per BTC was $103,878, which tells us their position is approximately +7.4%. DDC Enterprise (BitcoinTreasuries.Net) Based on the 8.3 million shares, this second source indicates that DDC has 0.12124 BTC per 1,000 shares. And where do they want to go? According to the CEO, the goal is to reach 5,000 BTC within 36 months. Based on this statement at the end of Q1 FY 2025, DDC intends to reach this goal by mid-FY 2028. Press release (DDC Enterprise) That makes things way simpler—unlike Top Win, we actually know how much BTC they've got and where they're aiming. Right now, DDC sits as the 42nd largest Bitcoin treasury worldwide, and if they push that up to 5,000 BTC, they'd break into the Top 20. BitcoinTreasuries.Net Modeling Some Scenarios for DDC Now that we have our premises on the table: 888/1,008 BTC in treasury today; 5,000 BTC by FY 2028; 8.3 million shares. Currently, DDC has somewhere between 0.000107 and 0.000121 BTC per share today (depending on which source you're looking at). At the current BTC price, we'd be looking at somewhere between $11.95 and $13.50. Essentially, it's trading at no premium to the BTC it owns—or, in the worst-case scenario, at a very small premium. Looking ahead to FY 2028 and estimating dilution of up to 12 million shares (to finance these purchases), we could imagine something close to 0.0004167 BTC per share. If we target BTC at $150,000 three years from now, we'd be talking about $62.50 per share. Applying a 1.5x NAV, this could rise to as high as $93. But remember, we're talking about the future. We need to bring this value into the present. VCs generally use discount rates that vary between 30-50%, and that's what I'll use here: 30% : $32.50; 40% : $24.20; 50% : $18.40. Of course, there are a lot of moving parts here. Beyond the discount rate, we're talking about different BTC price scenarios for FY 2028 ($100K? $200K?), how much dilution they'll need to fund those buys, and even whether they can actually hit that 5,000 BTC mark in the first place. Applying a conservative average between the lower and middle ends of the forecasts for the discount rate, we have a price target of approximately $21.30. Look, that's an upside of 56.6% in three years. It sounds interesting, but honestly, I would prefer to buy BTC directly and self-custody it. That said, my skepticism isn’t about Bitcoin itself—it’s about the company’s long-term strategy. At the end of the day, this is still a Chinese company that could easily end up in Washington’s crosshairs and face a delisting if tensions escalate. For now, I’m sticking with a ‘ Hold ’—the upside is clear, but so are the risks.
