Trump Tariffs Fuel Bitcoin’s Risk-Off Correction: Exchange Netflows Hint At Short-Term Selling

Bitcoin slipped below the $90,000 level as global markets reacted to rising macroeconomic tension between the United States and the European Union. Investors are closely watching the latest trade headlines, as renewed tariff threats increase uncertainty around global growth, corporate earnings, and inflation dynamics. When friction between major economies escalates, risk appetite typically fades, and crypto tends to feel the impact fast as traders reduce exposure and cut leverage. According to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s recent weakness fits a broader pattern that has been developing since 2025. The report argues that the Trump administration’s renewed tariff push has acted as a consistent downside pressure for BTC, mainly because tariffs influence multiple pillars of the macro environment at once. Higher tariffs can squeeze company margins, disrupt supply chains, and push inflation expectations higher, which complicates the outlook for interest rates and monetary policy. In this environment, Bitcoin has continued to behave more like a macro-sensitive risk asset than a defensive hedge. Instead of attracting safe-haven flows, BTC has often moved in sync with equities during trade-driven risk-off waves. As a result, even brief bursts of bullish momentum have struggled to hold when economic uncertainty rises and capital rotates into safer positioning. Tariff Risk Keeps Bitcoin Tied to Macro Conditions The XWIN Research Japan report explains that several Bitcoin pullbacks between 2025 and 2026 aligned with periods of rising economic uncertainty driven by tariff hikes and trade frictions. During these episodes, BTC declined alongside equities, reinforcing that the market still treats Bitcoin as a macro-sensitive risk asset rather than a defensive hedge. Instead of decoupling during stress, Bitcoin often reacts like a high-beta instrument when traders rush to reduce volatility in their portfolios. Economic risk tends to hit Bitcoin quickly because investor behavior adjusts fast. As uncertainty around growth and interest rates increases, capital typically shifts toward short-term protection. In that process, Bitcoin is frequently viewed as a liquid asset that can be sold temporarily to lower portfolio risk, rather than a long-term store of value that benefits from risk-off flows. This dynamic can amplify downside moves even when long-term fundamentals remain intact. Exchange Netflow provides a supplementary layer of evidence. During correction phases, brief spikes in exchange inflows often appear, consistent with tactical repositioning and short-term profit protection. However, these inflows have not persisted, suggesting the absence of sustained structural selling pressure. For now, the base scenario remains that tariff-driven economic risk is weighing on Bitcoin. If exchange inflows become sustained and supply-demand conditions weaken further, that assessment would need to be reassessed. BTC Holds Its Ground After Breaking Below $90K Bitcoin is trading around $88,800 on the weekly chart after a sharp selloff that briefly pushed price below the $90,000 psychological level. This drop marks a clear shift in momentum, as BTC failed to hold the mid-range structure that supported price action throughout the late-2025 consolidation phase. The weekly candle shows heavy downside pressure, with sellers rejecting attempts to stabilize above $92,000 and forcing a retest of lower demand. Technically, Bitcoin remains trapped between key moving averages. Price is still below the blue long-term trend line, which has acted as dynamic resistance since the breakdown from the $100,000+ region. At the same time, BTC is holding above the green moving average, suggesting that while the market is weak, longer-term buyers are still defending the broader uptrend structure. This creates a fragile equilibrium: as long as Bitcoin holds above the current support zone, bulls can attempt to rebuild a base and reclaim $90,000-$92,000. However, if volatility expands and the market loses the green trend line, it would expose BTC to a deeper correction toward the mid-$80,000s, where previous demand briefly stepped in during the prior drawdown. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com